29 Apr Weekly Market Map Forecasts and Trade Ideas Report
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Weekly Market Forecast Maps and Swing Trading Ideas Report: April 28th
- Market Analysis – Alternative Bullish Count takes front and center (See our 4/14 report)
- 2019 remains the year of the micro cap and we’ve closed out 2 big winners for +150% and +100% in just 2 months and our March 13th Buy Report on SOLY up 150% recently! Covering Cannabis explosive growth sector now with two recent picks in buy ranges.
- Check into Tippingpointstocks.com! Read our recent blog entry here (click to read)
Key Items for this week:
- Alternative Bullish Count takes the lead
- Market Sectors / Market Internals
- What are the next targets for the SP 500?
For the stock market trading week ending April 25th, the broad markets powered through with yet another new weekly high and a new all time high on a weekly closing basis. We mentioned the last 2 weekends that 2914 and 2930 were important weekly closing levels, which would be important for making new highs.
In this week’s report, we will map out our thoughts from here for the SP 500 and some opportunities to consider. Last week, we shared with you a little bit about monthly prices tending to hold their upper/lower Bollinger Bands, so we’ll share some updated thoughts around that too. Keep in mind, we are very bullish for the coming months, and there should be some good swing opportunities for our SRP and TPS services.
| Week ending 4/25: | |
| SP 500 | +1.2% |
| Russell 2000 | +1.7% |
| Nasdaq 100 | +1.8% |
| Dow Jones 30 | -0.1% |
Alternative Bullish Count takes the lead
Big picture, we warned that if 2920-40 could not provide adequate resistance and the SP 500 closed above 2930 specifically, we would put our Alternate Bullish Count front and center. Well, last week the index closed at 2940, for a new weekly all-time high close. Moving forwards, we should be looking for a smaller wave 3 in length compared to wave 1’s massive 470 point length. If so we’d consider 2957-3012 as likely stopping point for wave 3, followed by a small retrace (most likely back to test the range), then a wave 5 higher. Once again, we don’t always try to focus on timing but rather price levels with our Market Maps. One day at a time as they say.
Market Sectors
Given the SP 500 made a new all time high Friday, we thought we would show you a grid off all the SP 500 sectors and their relative proximity to their previous 2018 highs. As you can see, only Tech, Cons. Discretionary, Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate have made new highs (approx. 44% of the weighting of the SP 500). Over the coming months, we would like to see some of the heavier weighted sectors such as financials, healthcare, communications move higher.
(click chart below to enlarge)
Breadth & Market Internals chart:
Not much to point out here except the number of SP 500 stocks above 200dma has declined the past week or so, when it had been rising the previous weeks despite stocks > 20/50 dma declining. Something to watch here.
What are the next targets for the SP 500?
The market is clearly showing wave 3 characteristics and we won’t fight it. We can expect the market to take a pause during wave 4 and likely fill a few gaps here and there, but for now, we’re looking for a move on the low end to 2957 upwards to 3000-3010 area. We took our 8%+ sell 1/2 rule profits on two half sized swing trade positions this week on the market’s strength.
We continue to believe in this bull run and will use every pullback to buy into some stocks that we like that might have already run or are getting ready to run, especially in our SRP and TPS services. That said, we may see a short term sell in May peak here, setting up the summer for another run.
Watch the 13 and 34 Day EMAs from this point forward as they have been solid first levels of support and will continue to be our areas of focus of breakdown before we start looking at retrace levels.
Now on to some charts…
SP 500 Charts: Larger Wave 3 likely in place upon weekly close above 2930. Extension to 2957 up to 3000-10. Follow the 13/34 day EMA lines for best results.
Biotech (XBI) Chart: Inside week last week sets the tone for either a breakout (our preferred scenario) or breakdown from the previous week’s candle. There is still an open gap below.
Bottom Line:
- Market made new all time highs, with only half the sectors making highs above 2018 highs.
- Alternative Bullish Count in play as our preferred count.
- Stock Pickers market, don’t confuse our SP 500 charting with Swing Trading opportunities unless we are in a Major Wave lower
We also advise SRP Members to consider all of our services so you can attack the market from 3 different angles:
1) Long Term growth stocks (Tipping Point Stocks) We had a new report out on April 7th in the Cannabis sector, the stock hit all time closing highs last Friday April 28th! Still in buy ranges. We also put out another Cannabis Play report this past week on April 24th, and we think it could triple in 12 months! Join now for $999 per year charter rates, limited to 200 members.
HYRE up +100%, SOLO up +300% this year already and our most recent research from March 13th is already up 150% in just 4 weeks (SOLY).
2) SP 500 trading up and down movements (ESAlerts.com or Stocktwits Futures Room)
3) Swing Trading stocks and ETFs (Stock Reversals Premium)
E-mail Dave if you have any questions on the above at all. (Dave@stockreversalspremium.com)
Swing Trade Candidates: Each week we provide 8-15 Swing Trade ideas to consider as part of our SRP service. We often pick a few from the list during the week as actual alerts. We have 16 names this week.
TGNA – CHART LINK
3 weeks tight near 52 week highs. Company operates 49 TV stations and affiliated websites.
ZS – CHART LINK
7 week base near highs. Global Cloud security architecture provider.
MTOR – CHART LINK
3 week ascending base near highs. Company makes components for OEMs of commercial vehicle and transport sectors.
EDU – CHART LINK
Breaking out of a recent 4 week base, now near 52 week highs. Chinese provider of language training and test prep courses.
MGP – CHART LINK
5 week base near highs. REIT that owns large-scale casino properties such as MGM.
FTNT – CHART LINK
3 weeks tight base near all time highs. Company develops management systems to provide security in network functions.
CZR – CHART LINK
3 weeks tight base forming right side of inverse H&S. Casino and gaming company.
HEXO – CHART LINK
Broke out last week, up +15% of our Swing Trade ideas list. Should continue higher. Cannabis US listed play.
GH – CHART LINK
9 week base, recent IPO lock up took shares down from $107 to a low of $61. Now around $67 this could settle and make another run. Held our 64.90 closing stop loss last week. Emerging technology for Liquid Biopsies, could improve standard of care.
TTD – CHART LINK
Closing high breakout last week, with nothing but air higher. Company provides a self-service omnichannel software platform.
HCC – CHART LINK
4 week base just off of all time highs. Company produces and exports metallurgical coal for the steel industry.
CRLBF – CHART LINK
Closed at all time highs on Friday, off our list last week, up 12%! 4-5 week base not far off highs for this Cannabis Producer, distributor, and retailer. Arguably emerging as the US Blue Chip stock to own, but could break out in next few weeks towards 17 from 12-13.25 area.
TWLO – CHART LINK
7 week consolidation holding 13wma in a beautiful uptrend. Company provides a cloud communications platform.
PAYC – CHART LINK
10 week base, looking like it’s close to breaking up from right side to new ATHs. Company provides cloud-based human capital management (HCM) software service for small to mid-sized companies in the United States.
NIU – CHART LINK
Chinese Electric Scooter maker, after soaring from a base of $8 to $13.50, has pulled back hard to the low $9’s area. Could settle in here and start a rebound. $8.75-$9.25 ideal buy ranges.
SE – CHART LINK
Breakout to new 52 week highs last week. Company engages in the digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital financial service businesses.