15 Apr Weekly Market Map Forecasts and Trade Ideas Report
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Weekly Market Forecast Maps and Swing Trading Ideas Report: April 14th
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- Market Analysis – 5th wave bull leg approaching previous ATHs, possible alt bull count below
- 2019 remains the year of the micro cap and we’ve closed out 2 big winners for +150% and +100% in just 2 months and our March 13th Buy Report on SOLY is now up over 110%!
- Check into Tippingpointstocks.com! Read our recent blog entry here (click to read)
Key Items for this week:
- Possible alternate Bull Scenario
- Weekly Range / Market Internals
- What are the next targets for the SP 500?
For the week ending April 12th, the broad markets stumbled higher to close the week positive between 0-1%. For those counting, the SP 500 is now up 13 of the last 16 weeks, in what has been an incredible bull rally off a devastating bear market decline in Q4.
In today’s report, we will go over 2 possible bullish paths from current levels, so you can take note. Keep in mind, we essentially threw out the lower lows bear market count once price held 2715 as support, and now due to seasonality and breadth, among many other things, we are looking higher in 2019 and would need to see price action strongly break down below 2500 before we reconsider our Alternate ABC Bear Cycle Lows count which had the bear cycle ending late December 2018.
We’ve called 2019 the year of the micro cap, which is key, since we are swing traders. We’ve had a few misses in SRP after our ripping fast start, but we’re still well above our average win rate. We encourage you to also look at TPS, which is absolutely on fire, and you should consider joining to round out your investing options with our services!
Our primary count is that we are finishing off a 5th wave ending diagonal from the March lows lows of the bigger bull wave started late December. However, we’ll share with you a possible alternate bullish count which could come into play if 2920-40 doesn’t act as resistance to hold price here in the coming weeks.
Week ending 4/12: SP 500 +0.5% Russell 2000 +0.1% Nasdaq 100 +0.7% Dow Jones 30 -0.1% Possible alternate bull count
As of this past week, the SP 500 has rallied from a low of 2347 to 2907, roughly 560 points, 1.1% below the previous all time high of 2941. While this area should act as significant resistance (given the number of trapped buyers in the fall), there is a chance that the market continues to grind higher on the back of seasonality, corporate earnings, the proverbial wall of worry and Fed policy accommodation.
Should the SP 500 close above 2914 and then 2930, then the following count should merit strong consideration. The possibility exists that the Feb high to March low was in fact a larger Wave 1 – 2 of the bullish count and we are currently in the midst of a 3rd wave to new all time highs. If so, we’d expect 3050-3150 in relatively short order. We will keep this in the back of our minds.
Weekly Range / Market Internals
We’ve added the % of stocks above 20 / 50 / 200 dmas in the chart below. While the % of SP 500 stocks above 200 dma continues to climb (long term bullish), the % of SP 500 stocks above 20 / 50 dmas have lagged on last week’s high, which could signal a short term sign of weakness. We mentioned last week that we should expect breadth and participation of stocks to soften here if this is in fact a 5th wave of larger Wave 1 degree. We are also seeing some signs of bull/bear sentiment getting a little over bullish here, combined with Friday’s put call ratio data.
Breadth & Market Internal charts:
What are the next targets for the SP 500?
The market now has multiple gaps open from the March lows, including 2 weekly gaps (caused by a gap up on Monday that doesn’t test the prior Friday’s high). We expect the next market consolidation to test and/or fill these gaps, which will provide great opportunity to buy into some stocks that we like that might have already run or are getting ready to run.
Will all eyes on the psychological 2900 level, the market punched through and it is our belief that price between 2900-2940 is drawing all the bulls off the sidelines and any bears remaining will likely have to flip bullish. This is where we should see whether our primary or alternate bullish counts are playing out.
The 13 and 34 emas provide support (chart below) and will continue to be our areas of focus of breakdown before we start looking at retrace levels. Until then upper targets are 2920-30 region and downside levels are 2870-50 region.
Now on to some charts…
SP 500 Charts: Wave 5 can extend, keeping eye out for Alternative Bullish Count. Corrective targets 2850 / 2800 / 2750, but follow the 34 day EMA line for best results.
This chart shows possible 5th wave as an “Ending Diagonal”, so could have more more pullback, then one more surge higher.
Biotech (XBI) Chart: Consolidation within ascending traingle with major resistance above. Not likely to break through on first attempt. Needs pullback with 80-82 region low end.
Bottom Line:
- Market showing exhaustion signs particularly with consecutive daily gap ups (we saw this in January 2018)
- Bigger term retrace levels are 2750 / 2800 / 2850, which ideally would give us a launchpad to attack new all time highs. 2677 is the midpoint of 2019’s High-Low range.
- We are becoming more confident in the new BULL CYCLE pattern, due to seasonality and breadth, among many other things, and need to see price action strongly break down below 2500 before we reconsider our Alternate ABC Bear Cycle Lows.
- The inverted yield curve is of concern but could be temporary.
- The FED is very accommodative, which has helped the market.
We also advise SRP Members to consider all of our services so you can attack the market from 3 different angles:
1) Long Term growth stocks (Tipping Point Stocks) We had a new report out Monday of this past week!! April 7th! Still in buy ranges. Join now for $999 per year charter rates, limited to 200 members.
HYRE up +100%, SOLO up +300% this year already and our most recent research from March 13th is already up 110% in just 4 weeks (SOLY).
Our most report came out Monday morning April 7th and we liken this company to being the next Procter and Gamble combined with Amazon!!
2) SP 500 trading up and down movements (ESAlerts.com or Stocktwits Futures Room)
3) Swing Trading stocks and ETFs (Stock Reversals Premium)
E-mail Dave if you have any questions on the above at all. (Dave@stockreversalspremium.com)
Swing Trade Candidates: Each week we provide 8-15 Swing Trade ideas to consider as part of our SRP service. We often pick a few from the list during the week as actual alerts. We have 13 names this week.
TTD – 8 week consolidation flag above the 13wma. Company provides a self-service omnichannel software platform.
ZS – 5 week flag pattern from early March gap up. Company operates as a cloud security providing solutions worldwide.
HCC – sideways consolidation after recent all time high close. Company produces and exports metallurgical coal for the steel industry.
IIPR – 4 week base, looking like it’s close to breaking up from right side. Company operates in real estate acquisition for the regulated cannabis market.
NGM – post IPO play holding IPO level. Under 16 is a wait and see, but worth a look. Company engages in the discovery and development of novel therapeutics for the treatment of cardio-metabolic, liver, oncologic, and ophthalmic diseases.
DBX – weekly inverse H&S forming. Company provides a collaboration platform worldwide.
SE – 6 week base flag forming after its previous earnings gap. Company engages in the digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital financial service businesses.
I – company holding its 20MMA nicely and follow through on weekly looking likely. Company provides satellite communications services worldwide.
COUP – breakout and backtest in a 10 week base to 13 wma from all time high breakout earlier this year. Company provides cloud-based business spend management platform.
TWLO – 5 week consolidation holding 13wma. Company provides a cloud communications platform.
MTOR – Closed 23.61 last week. Said above 23 and it could fly. We’re keeping on weekly list due to its strength. Company focuses on all aspects of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the aftermarket for the commercial vehicle, transportation, and industrial sectors.
FTNT – Up 10% last week, with massive weekly cup and handle. Look for new ATHs soon. Company provides broad, integrated, and automated cybersecurity solutions worldwide.
MTZ – weekly breakout of right base here. Infrastructure construction company.