01 Apr Weekly Market Map Forecasts and Trade Ideas Report
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Weekly Market Forecast Maps and Swing Trading Ideas Report: Mar 31st
- Market Analysis – potential topping candle 2 weeks ago, inside week past week
- 2019 remains the year of the micro cap and we’ve closed out 2 big winners for +150% and +100% in just 2 months Check into Tippingpointstocks.com! Read our recent blog entry here (click to read)
Key Items for this week:
- 13 week symmetrical bottom / top in play??
- Breadth and Market Internals
- What are the next targets for the SP 500?
For the week ending March 29th, the major market indexes mostly consolidated between the prior week’s High and Low, with all indices closing positive. No new high was made for any of the indexes and we are focusing now on the current divergences in place. The SP 500 is coiled for a break one way or the other, so we are patiently watching.
Let’s face it – the SP 500 has rallied 22% in 14 weeks and has been positive 11 of those 14 weeks. Breadth off the December lows has been extremely strong, so let’s give the market credit for strong participation. However, we know that the market occasionally does take a breather and we think a small pullback over the coming weeks is likely and warranted. Keep in mind, we are swing traders and stock pickers so we welcome small consolidation so we can pounce on the best opportunities that no one else wants to buy. Individual stocks can move dramatically within one to two days and that’s what we look for…a stock reversal opportunity.
We talked about divergences and breadth last week, so did anything change there? Keep reading and we’ll share some thoughts below.
This past week concluded the end of the Q1 2019, capping off an impressive performance following Q4 2018 massive selloff. In this weekend report, we show a gem of a chart with similar back to back quarter candle combinations to possibly give use clues as to what next quarter(s) could have in store.
| Week ending 3/29: | |
| SP 500 | +1.2% |
| Russell 2000 | +2.3% |
| Nasdaq 100 | +0.7% |
| Dow Jones 30 | +1.7% |
13 week symmetrical bottom / top in play??
We pointed out in one of our recent morning reports for SRP members on Twitter a symmetrical 13 week decline for the SP 500 from October high to December low followed by a 13 week rally from December low to March high (currently peak high thus far) — Fibonacci symmetry at its best! Will the high from 2 weeks ago hold??
Breadth and Market Internals
The percentage of SP 500 stocks above their 50/200 DMAs have continued to make lower highs on the recent rally from late February in the SP 500.
Breadth & Market Internal charts:
What are the next targets for the SP 500?
The 5 wave advance looks to be complete from the Dec washout lows, provided price stays below the recent 2860 high. Our first confirmation of a 5th wave top would be a close below 2805, followed by a break of 2785 support, and then we are looking for a corrective ABC consolidation thereafter, which should then set up a very bullish rally into the Summer and early Fall. Things are looking overall bullish for the potential long term Bull Cycle from the Dec 24th 2018 lows.
We are only looking for a sideways to slightly lower consolidation (similar to 2016), Small caps have already begun to dip here, so ultimately we could see them bottom out first, which is great because we find lots of good swing names for SRP in this space.
Playing the SRP Playbook: Avoid cherry picking…
Thanks to our Market Maps (a.k.a. Elliott Wave pattern analysis), we have continued to look for trade setups, closing 26 of 35 swing trades for the year 2019 for avg winning trade gains of 14%. That’s a 74% Win Rate so far after 3 months of trading. As time averages out, we aim for about 70% accuracy during 2019 all in.
We continue to find swing trade opportunities, and abide by our 8% sell half rule to lock in gains.
We will monitor and advise as always on a daily basis.
Now for some charts…
SP 500 Charts: Wave 5 top confirmed as long as price <2860. Corrective targets 2738 / 2701 / 2665
Biotech (XBI) Chart: Consolidation still shaking out, large move up or down likely, taking cue from broad market. Downside targets 80-82 region.
Bottom Line:
- Market consolidating within range from previous down week. Next week should go a long way to confirm if 2860 was the top of this 5th wave.
- Bigger term retrace levels are 2665 / 2700 / 2738, which ideally would give us a launchpad to attack new all time highs this year. 2652 is the midpoint of 2019’s High-Low range.
- We are becoming more confident in the new BULL CYCLE pattern, due to seasonality and breadth, among many other things, and need to see price action strongly break down below 2500 before we reconsider our Alternate ABC Bear Cycle Lows.
- The inverted yield curve is of concern.
- The FED is very accommodative, which has helped the market
We also advise SRP Members to consider all of our services so you can attack the market from 3 different angles:
1) Long Term growth stocks (Tipping Point Stocks) … HYRE up +100%, SOLO up +300% this year already and our most recent report last week is already up 14% in 4 days.
2) SP 500 trading up and down movements (ESAlerts.com or Stocktwits Futures Room)
3) Swing Trading stocks and ETFs (Stock Reversals Premium)
E-mail Dave if you have any questions on the above at all. (Dave@stockreversalspremium.com)
Swing Trade Candidates: Each week we provide 8-15 Swing Trade ideas to consider as part of our SRP service. We often pick a few from the list during the week as actual alerts. We have 11 names this week.
TEAM – 5 week base near highs. Company designs, develops, licenses, and maintains various software products worldwide to help teams with project management.
VEEV – 7 week base near highs. Company provides cloud-based software for the life sciences industry.
SSNC – 5 week base near highs. Company provides software products and software-enabled services to financial services and healthcare industries with a reasonable PE.
MTCH – 8 week consolidation near 52-week highs. Company provides dating products all over the world in 40 languages.
SOI – 7 week consolidation. Company provides proppant and chemical management systems for the drilling industry with a reasonable PE ratio.
TME – 6 week base near highs. Recent IPO for China based online music platform
FHL – 3 week post IPO consolidation near highs. China-based company operates a holding company for online brokerage platforms.
TBLT – like the company fundamentally, as we’ve covered this name on Twitter and believe it to be undervalued fundamentally and a post IPO setup. Company designs, manufactures, and distributes home improvement and construction products for the building industry.
SMAR – bull wedge forming. Company provides cloud-based platform for execution of work.
SE – 4 week base flag forming. Company engages in the digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital financial service businesses.
ROKU – 5 week base near highs. Company operates a TV streaming platform.