28 Jan Weekly Market Map Forecasts and Trade Ideas Report
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Weekly Market Map Forecasts and Swing Trading Ideas Report: January 27th
- Market Analysis – B wave path possibly concluding soon, 2715/2740 top end
- SRP YTD performance – last 14 trades profitable for 13% average gains!
- Our Market Maps are keeping us on the right side of the trade!
- The Market is up +329 points in 5 weeks: When will the market pull back? How much and what are the targets?2019 General Outlook (Subject to Change)General intermediate view is B wave rally from 2346 continues off the A wave low. This B wave could meander for a few more months even into May 2019 before a larger and firmer C wave down into the 3rd quarter 2019 tests the lows or into the 2000-2100 SP 500 area. Obviously this is subject to change but that is loosely our view now.- Dave, Chief Strategist
For the holiday-shortened week ending Jan 25th, the major indices rallied off Tuesday’s lows to close the week flat, but ending a 4 week positive streak for the SP 500.
Week ending 1/25: SP 500 -0.22% Russell 2000 +0.02% Nasdaq 100 +0.04% Dow Jones 30 +0.12%
If you haven’t put any money to work over the month of January, now is probably not the time to chase or get too aggressive, with the SP 500 up 330 points off its Dec 24th low in 5 weeks. The market is doing a good job of going from one extreme to the next – extreme sell signals to (now) extreme buy and or overbought signals, which is exactly what a B wave is intended to do.
Fortunately, we used our Market Maps and Elliott Wave pattern analysis to position ourselves the past few weeks at market pivots and have closed our last 14 trades profitably for 13% avg gains per trade since beginning of January. SRP Swing Trade Members continue to be off to a great start in 2019.
We know we’ll have this streak end at some point, and we’re not taking that for granted. However, as swing traders, we welcome volatility, and you should too! We will do our best to position accordingly near turns and be defensive when necessary. Most likely we’ll be taking profits on our many positions in the current Model Portfolio soon, where appropriate.
Since our call for Interim A bottoming at 2346, the SP 500 has rallied 329 points, or +14%.
Many of our open positions in the SRP Swing Trade portfolio are in really attractive weekly base patterns, so we could see a few break out to the upside soon…be patient. The largest percentile moves usually come in very quick windows of time, and right after most traders give up and move on.
Our year to date performance is shown below.
SRP Model Performance (YTD):
The SRP model portfolio has outperformed the SP 500 by 12% YTD! The Russell 2000 index is up 10% YTD, and we are still ahead of the curve there on a relative basis.
On to some charts for this week…
SP 500 Charts: Interim B wave in progress, 2713 / 2757 large fib targets, 2741 200 dma
Biotech (XBI) Chart: bearish hanging man candle last week, unfilled gap below
Bottom Line: B wave of a Bear market rally , possible larger C wave in 2019 to test lows or worse?
- Interim Wave B up from the ABC – A to 2346 on SP 500 should be close to completing (or possibly just A of Interim B, (A-B-C – B) A pullback after this coming week would make sense.
- Interim Wave B 2572, 2640 targets have been met. 2684, 2705, and 2726, which represent C wave ratio of the 174 pt A leg up from 12/24 – 1/2. Our original upside target of 2715 is also approaching. 200 dma is at 2741.
- Market should test the downtrend line resistance this week, and we’ll see reaction there.
- 4 weeks up straight, followed by a bearish hanging man candle last week, means we should start seeing weakness. Big earnings week for many SP 500 bellwethers. So far, we have seen 71% of reporting companies beat the estimates.
- Continue to stick with us, as we will continue to lean on our Market Maps to guide us through the next cycle leg. We have been fortunate to take advantage of this oversold rally off extreme bottoming in December, and we ask you to stay with us by following the alerts and advice through all cycles if you can for best results!
Swing Trade Candidates: Each week we provide 8-15 Swing Trade ideas to consider as part of our SRP service. We often pick a few from the list during the week as actual alerts. We have 15 names this week.
SLDB – looks like heavy buying on this recent dip. They bought the dip in Dec, how about now? Company engages in identifying and developing therapies for duchenne muscular dystrophy in the United States.
ROKU – beautiful IHS pattern forming on daily. Above 46, and the IHS could trigger a target towards gap fill around 56. Company operates a TV streaming platform.
EROS – breakout could extend all the way to 10.5-11.0. Company together with its subsidiaries, co-produces, acquires, and distributes Indian films in various formats worldwide.
MOGU – low float name, with 2 weekly tails posted. 20-22 is area to target. Company operates as an online fashion and lifestyle destination in China.
UXIN – base building here on daily chart. Don’t get married to the name, but if double bottom holds, range targets could be looking 4.50-5.0. Any close under 3.29 invalidates. Company operates an used car e-commerce platform in China.
LTHM – could be forming a double bottom here, and a move back to 15 entirely possible. Company manufactures and sells performance lithium compounds that are used primarily in energy storage, specialty polymers, and chemical synthesis application.
OSTK – up +21% last week after highlighting in last weekend’s report! Our initial target was 17.50/18, and it closed the week at 18.38. After consolidation, could see next resistance around 19-20 region. Company operates as an online retailer in the United States.
SNAP – Cup / Handle forming on the daily. Breakout above 6.60 looks like 7.3-8.6 in play. Company operates as a camera company in the United States and internationally.
ZAYO – consolidation week from prior 4 week rally, 13/34 dma crossed positively, and looking for the gap above at 30. Company provides bandwidth infrastructure solutions for the communications industry in the United States, Canada, and Europe.
IGT – strong weekly close, looks like it wants higher. >16.20 and we see 17.50-18.50. Company operates and provides technology products and services across lotteries, electronic gaming machines, sports betting, and interactive gaming markets worldwide.
LASR – double bottom post IPO retest of lows, still looking great. 22-24 should be minimum target higher. Company designs, develops, and manufactures semiconductor and fiber lasers used in various end applications in the industrial, microfabrication, and aerospace and defense markets.
BJ – Now up 20% since we first highlighted 4 weeks ago. Double range accumulation targets 28-29. Company operates as a warehouse club on the East Coast of the United States.
DOCU – Probably heading towards 50-52 before any major consolidation. First highlighted at 40 region, now 21% higher. Company provides cloud based transaction products and services in the United States.
EB – perhaps another test lower to the TL in a post IPO weekly triangle around 27-28, but this looks like accumulation and wanting to explode upwards. Could attack 33-35. Company’s platform integrates components needed to plan, promote, and produce live events that allow creators to reduce friction and costs, increase reach, and drive ticket sales.
FTCH – high consolidation weekly candle. 22-24 region would be attainable if push continues. Company is an online luxury fashion retail platform that sells products from over 700 boutiques and brands from around the world.