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Weekly Forecast and Trade Ideas Report for February  25th:

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Last week we suggested that the 2532 lows were in fact the final lows of Intermediate Wave 4, the correction from 2872 Wave 3 highs.  We felt at the end of the week that the shallow pullback we had projected after hitting 2754 highs off those 2532 lows was winding down.  On Friday in our pre-market forecast we put out the following chart:

We were looking for an upside breakout of the Bull Flag per that chart above. Sure enough a big move up as the SP 500 rallied 43 points to 2747, which is a new “Closing High” off the Wave 4 2532 lows.  This shows likely ongoing strength in the market ahead as Wave 5 up continues.

We should see more upside ahead. The chart below is updated and shows that shallow wave 2, which again would portend more strength ahead if we are right.

Biotech also is in a nice consolidation and should get some strength ahead as well:

XBI ETF Chart: 34 day EMA is support

GOLD- Still looks like a nice bullish consolidation: 8 week pattern looks strong for more upside.

Market Notes:

Bullish Advisors have dropped to 48.5% from 68% at the 2872 SP 500 market highs, this is a contrarian bullish sign as more advisors have gone bearish or neutral.

NASI Indicator

Last week we used the NASI indicator to explain why we thought the 2532 lows would hold for the bottom of Wave 4, and we can see even with the late week surge up, that this indicator is only just now turning up

CNN Fear Gauge:

Still running at extreme fear readings of 18, even with the Friday surge, again a bullish indicator:

Swing Trade Ideas: 11 Fresh ideas for potential breakouts or gains ahead out of base patterns

WB- 6 week base pattern for Chinese Social Media leader, close to breakout

HTHT- China Lodging, 9 week base, close to a breakout

SKX- Sketchers shoes in a 9 week base

TEAM- 9 week base, project management software for teams

MTOR- 4 week corrective base, integrated systems and components for OEMs

VUZI- 7 week base, testing 10 week line. Augmented/Virtual reality glasses maker

CASA- 8 week base for recent IPO

AMTD- 7 week base for online broker

LX- 10 week base for Chinese Micro-Loan provider

HMI- Recent Chinese IPO, provider of smart wearable devices

JT- 15 week Post IPO base, Chinese internet based platform for loan and credit card applicants

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