10 May Weekly State of the Markets and Swing Trading Ideas Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of May 11th
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- SP 500 at key inflection going into Monday trading (C wave down or breakout)
- NASDAQ leading the charge with Tech and Medical Tech (Updated QQQ chart and pivots)
- Put to Call ratio plunging to .53, near 2020 market high reading (Bearish or Complacent reading)
- Gold looks poised to re-test 1788 highs plus (Chart)
- NYSE index in 21 trading day base, again Monday expect confirming move (Chart)
- Swing Trade list going for 7 straight weeks of 85-90% winners (See list at bottom of report)
Recent results and notes: Stock ,ETF , and SP 500 Futures Swing Trading Results
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Tech and Medical Tech continue to lead. We saw a 20% move up in our BCRX position Friday at SRP, also alerted a recent IPO on Friday on a pullback and it ran up 9% from alert price. 3x ETF has two positions open going into Monday trading, and the Futures Service gave up profits twice in overnight trading action but contained losses. Our Tipping Point Stocks (Long Term Growth) are on fire, PRVB leading the way with a huge weekly gain.
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General Market Summary: Updated Banister Market and Elliott Wave Views on SP 500
SP 500 and Other Index commentary:
We are continuing to see Nasdaq lead the way as Technology and what I call “Medical Technology” plays are leading the charge.
We also have likely a few million new day traders and traders joining the fold since the market crash and since Covid-19 put people out of work or laid off for now. Charles Schwab noted 600,000 new accounts opened in one month alone for example. I think many of these newly active traders are pushing tech and medical tech to parabolic popcorn popping like movements. This action is likely not sustainable and this behavior comes near tops typically. However, we may get a parabolic blow off in the NASDAQ index (QQQ ETF) ahead before a larger pullback.
You could wake up one morning very quickly to “Risk Off” and see your positions down 6, 8, 10, 13% in one day, so just be advised to keep one eye open and a finger on the sell trigger, or tighter than normal stops. The party ends at some point.
In the meantime, at SRP we have been riding the trend literally since the morning of March 23rd and will continue to do so but intelligently.
The SP 500 is the Index I normally forecast since it has a good cross section of the economy and market in general. It pulled back hard about 10 days ago with a Thursday and Friday decline that took 6.5% off the ES Futures in 2 days. This past week we rallied up in what I assumed would be a bounce up B wave, followed by a C wave down to 2660-2720 ranges off the 2954 SP 500 highs since March 23rd.
With that said, the NASDAQ is at post March 23 highs while the DOW, SP 500, Russell have not yet followed. This is setting up a possible bearish divergence that must be watched, even if we are riding Tech and Medical Tech swing trade wise etc. I believe early this week the markets will give us the next major direction. Will the other indices follow the NASDAQ as it rockets higher or will we run out of gas? 50-50 call, but I will play it whichever way it tells me for my members of various services
My old friend who has since passed away, Tony Caldaro used to more or less say “Project, Monitor, then adjust” in terms of Elliot Wave analysis. I was projecting a drop into Mid June not straight down, but to 2660’s area likely over a week ago, but if we rocket up this week I’ll have to adjust accordingly.
Charts this week: SP 500, NYSE, GOLD, Put to Call Ratio
- SP 500 in B wave up, but if we smash past 2954 then I need to re-evaluate the count obviously
- NYSE Chart 21 day base, often preceeds big move (Banister Behavioral Pattern)
- Put to Call ratio at .53, this shows complacency post Crash (Warning sign)
- Gold looks ready to test prior 1788 highs and then some
- QQQ chart 227, 233 pivots above to watch
Other Indicators and Charts:
Advisor’s start turning more bullish: (Contrarian signal, but still room to move a little higher)
Advisors are now 48% Bulls and 27% Bears. (Last week 43 Bulls and 29 Bears). At the bottom or near bottom after the first bounce we were around 41% Bears and 30% Bulls, this has now reversed and typical near the final leg of a rally up off lows.
Twitter Poll: Confirms market inflection?
For fun I put out a twitter poll this morning to my followers, and though perhaps not statistically perfect here are teh results: Split evenly with Traders expecting Parabolic NASDAQ move and or a 7-10% correction. That’s called an inflection point
What is the next market direction?:
The plan is to continue to swing trade and or invest with my various services for Members to make profits on a consistent basis. One of the first steps is for me to determine what Wave pattern and stage of a market rally or decline we are in, and then plan and execute trades and or allocations accordingly. The market has had a great rally, and starting to show some signs of tiring out and we will trade accordingly.
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Its a New Economy, think outside the box: 17 ideas this week
6 weeks in a Row of great ideas with a 90% success rate including last week! Each week I try to come up with some fresh ideas, repeats as well if they have not broken out yet, or I remove prior ideas if they already ran up.
Last weeks big winners were DXCM up 19% and ZYXI up 13%.
Price per share doesn’t matter, what matters is % movement!
Repeated from Last week:
ZYXI- This was on last weeks list and rallied 13% for the week, but pulled back some. Still attractive.
BOX- On the list frequently of late, moved up this past week but could continue breakout. Cloud based business.
ZM- 7 week overall base pattern for Zoom Video, which I first highlighted at $90 area near market lows
14 New Names for 5/11:
CATS- On the list several weeks ago, ran up 50%. Has pulled back hard and a good entry point possible here (Tele-Heath trend, high insider ownership, tight share structure. Short attack pushes it back to good entry possibly, testing 10 week EMA line near $22
DDOG- Earnings due Monday, but emerging leader in Cloud Infrastructure Management
AMD- 4 weeks tight base pattern for chip leader
SFM- Covid play as the move towards Organic and Vegan diets accelerates (340 stores, broke out last week)
KL- Gold miners consolidating and could run if Gold breaks back to the upside, 3 weeks tight pattern
TSM- On the list again, Chip market in a 4 weeks tight base pattern
PFSI- PennyMac Financial services mortgage loans as well as Investment Management activities, 2 weeks tight.
VIRT- 5 week tight base pattern. Infrastructure supplier to the stock trading sector, low PE ratio
VRTX- 5 weeks base pattern near 52 week highs. Leading Bio-Pharma with Cystic Fibrosis therapies
NFLX- Netflix I first advised at $290 post market lows, now 430’s. However, could still work higher after 4 week base here
SSRM- Silver could follow Gold and Gold miners higher, 3 weeks tight ascending base is bullish here
TTWO- Take 2 Software benefiting from Online gaming etc. 6 week ascending base pattern.
INVA- 5 weeks tight ascending base pattern. Develops small molecule drugs for respiratory diseases
BMY- Bristol Myers in 4 week overall consolidation, low PE, very diversied Pharma/Biotech hybrid company
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