15 Mar Weekly Wave Forecast and Crash Update Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of March 16th
- Near historic crash readings remain relative to prior Bear cycles
- Smart Money at 10 year highs for bullishness while Dumb money at multi year lows (Bullish)
- Put to Call ratios hit higher levels then 2016 and 2018 bear cycle lows this past week (Bullish)
- Only 4% of stocks trading above 50 day MA lines, historic lows or close (Bullish)
- 30% decline in 3 weeks is the fastest on record (Bullish)
- Lots of charts to review that tell the tape
- Market may have one more washout yet (2675 key support)
- List of 14 names for Swing Trade ideas in current environment plus charts
Recent results and notes: Stock ,ETF , and SP 500 Futures Swing Trading Results
We laid low in the SRP Swing Trade service for yet another week staying in cash, waiting for dust to settle a bit. SP 500 futures also keeping low profile while providing daily guidance to members. 3x ETF service closed nice gains on SPXL early in week and took loss on LABU, then stayed 100% in cash last few days while dust settles.
3x ETF Service on Stocktwits.com : Track Record is online, join for just $40 a month and pull more money from the market bull or bear with my Behavioral based and contrarian approach to 3x ETF trading! We solely trade 3x ETF Bull and Bear pairs as the market dictates. Read up at The3xetftrader.com Use the Subscribe tab to join off your desktop on Stocktwits
General Market Summary:
We got the re-test of the lows and then some last week. Instead of belaboring all the points everyone has already read about the nature of this decline, I again will post up multiple charts to tell the story for me.
Bottom line is we could get one more washout to 2150, 2250, 2350 zones on the SP 500 as more and more bad news comes in. Normally with these historic crash readings I would be standing on my head being super bullish, however we are in a Black Swan event territory here and its hard to say we have price bottomed just yet.
Futures will begin trading at 6pm EST on Sunday night, so you can check those to see how the early sentiment is acting after lots of closures worldwide over the weekend. 2775 is the upside resistance, 2675 key support, below that we could fall all the way to 2150-2350 zones.
A few notes of optimism:
Smart Money readings from The Sentiment Trader are showing 83% Bulls, and the Dumb Money has crashed to just 9% Bulls. This is a contrarian bullish signal
The NYSE Short interest ratio has dropped to a 5 year low of .49, it was running at a hot read of 5 a few months ago, meaning lots of bets on a down market did pay off, but right now those bets are closing out which could be read as bullish depending on your viewpoint
One more area I would like to see adjust is the percentage of Investment Advisors being Bearish, its only 23%. This is super low and a final bottom in the market would come with this I think above 40%. The % of bulls has dropped to 36% from 55% a few months ago, but the Bears are not coming out of the woods in enough droves to help drive a final bottom in my opinion.
Like everyone, I’m not sure if we have hit the price lows for this Bear Cycle yet…
Charts tell the story:
% of Stocks above 50 day moving average plunging to 4%, a multi year low. Worst than last two bear lows.
Gold hit the 5th wave peak area I projected a few weeks back at 1700, could plunge to 1375
Weekly read of Put to Call ratio hit multi year highs, worst than last two Bear cycle market lows
NASI ratio at -1002, almost as low as 2018 Bear Cycle Low
ES Futures long term chart shows us just above the 200 week EMA Line at 2671 as of Friday close after plunging during the week to 2395 lows. We rallied 13%.
Huge “Tail” on the Candlestick for this past week at 2395, I had been discussing 2350 possible
Daily 200 day EMA line is at 3070 which would be upside resistance to Bear Rally. Could be a 4th wave high this past Friday with a 5th wave down to lows ahead, or we are trying to bounce up in B… either way, still expect another flush to test recent lows or worse in weeks ahead.
Swing Trading Ideas: 14 names to look into
Several interesting plays for the current economic times to consider this week. I have charts below on those names. These include the following symbols. (We may or may not alert some of these at our SRP service)
WORK, ZM, CLX, PTON, NFLX, EBS, REGN, ZTO, ZM, RNG, LAKE, DBX, TNK, GSX
A few charts and notes:
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