01 Mar Market Crash Special Edition Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of March 2nd
- Pictures worth a thousand words, multiple various charts tell the story
- CNN Fear Gauge near 2018 Bear cycle wave A and B lows
- NYMO Breadth of market reading lowest in years!
- IWM ETF liquidation volume same as early 2016 Bear Market lows
- Put to call Ratio soaring
- Smart money bullishness at 61% vs 27% for Dumb Money is contrarian indicator
- Gold plunges, but could still test 1490’s in Wave 2?
- 50% retrace of entire 2346-3392 power move in the SP 500 all in under 8 days
- Bounce up then possible re-test of 2850’s lows even 2750s in weeks ahead?
- % of stocks above 50 day MA or 200 day MA plunging, also bottoming signals typically
Recent results and notes: Stock ,ETF , and SP 500 Futures Swing Trading Results
We stood aside in the 3x ETF service during the crash other than taking a poke at a pivot reversal at 3140 on SP 500 via SPXL, we closed that out for a quick small loss early in week. The action was too fast to trade. Futures services took shots at pivot reversals as well, 3 losses and 1 win during the week but net loss points of 32, flat into the weekend with thoughts of maybe 3050 being hit on a bounce.
The SRP swing trade service came into the week 90% in cash, we have not added a trade in two weeks. We closed one of the final 2 positions for profits of 6%. We escaped unscathed due to my market warning models.
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This week we show multiple charts with notes on each. They tell the story. This market re-traced 50% of the entire advance from 2346 to 3393 on the SP 500 in under 8 trading days. A crash of 16% at one point. The fact that 5 major newspapers/journals all had Corona type headlines is one of the bottoming indicators I watch for. Also CNN fear readings at extremes, Put to Call readings, IWM ETF liquidation volume, and several other indicators argue for a bounce up. See all the charts with notes, they tell the story. A relief rally started late Friday, but weekend headlines not good on the virus. I still think we could get a bit more panic and a 2750-2850 zone before a bottom it possibly firm. This is a Black Swan event.
I see a possible 2850’s re-test if not a further plunge to 2750’s before the market prices in the impact to earnings this year due to the virus and shut downs over next few weeks or even days. We may take some shots at a few 3x ETF’s and or even stocks this week depending on action, but no rush to be a hero either. Typically after a crash and with the readings and charts I show this weekend, we get a bounce, but usually a re-test if not lower in the weeks ahead.
Review all charts and notes. 2850 key to hold, 3050 likely resistance. 2750 low end support.
Chart I did Friday morning ( ended up at 2850s lows)
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