08 Mar Weekly Wave Forecast and Crash Update Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of March 9th
- Fear Gauge update (CNN Readings at extremes)
- Multiple Charts showing massive oversold readings
- Thoughts on status of market plunge and levels to watch
- IWM ETF chart update
- Chip Stocks chart (SOX ETF) update
- % of Stocks on NASDAQ above 50 day ma reading update
Recent results and notes: Stock ,ETF , and SP 500 Futures Swing Trading Results
A nice 26% gain on NUGT closed early in the week (Gold Miners 3x BULL) in the 3x service. Initiated a few new positions in the Swing Trade service all of which held up. Futures service made a nice gain on Friday and we are testing some new indicators as well.
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General Market Summary:
The SP 500 plunged late in the week , then had a short covering bounce into the close of trading Friday, ended up flat for the overall week. Markets are very oversold still, a re-test of 2850’s possible but barring a secondary short term crash, things should stabilize with extremes at 2728 if it turns hard south.
The Market tends to discount about 9 months out, and it’s trying to figure out the economic impact to money flows in the economy, the velocity of money, earnings declines and the fall out and amplitude of the interconnected consumer spending slowdown to corporate earnings and outlooks. Hence, expect continued volatility as its nearly impossible for the market to project a Black Swan outcome.
We are still above the 2850’s crash lows, often a re-test occurs within 1-3 weeks so we will see if that happens this week. Generally speaking an intermediate drop to 2728-2790 in the few months or even weeks ahead would make sense, but not likely straight down either. Markets have huge oversold indicators across the board right now.
Chip stocks and Small Caps at key support levels, key to watch (See charts)
Review all charts and notes. 2850 key to hold, 2728-2790 zone likely at some point. 3090 200 day resistance.
Charts tell the story:
% Of stocks above 50 day moving average at extreme lows, indicating wash out lows here or close
Small Caps testing 200 week EMA line, similar to 2018 lows test
Chip Stocks also testing 34 week EMA Line, trying to hold
CNN Fear gauge at 7, meaning extreme fear readings still in effect, usually near tradeable lows
SP 500 actually up a tad for the week, Intermediately I think we may test 2730’s area
2730-2790 zone likely tested intermediately in my opinion
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