09 Dec Weekly Elliott Wave Forecasts and Trading Ideas Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of December 9th
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We put out two new swing trades this past week in PRVB and MOMO. We had nice 8-10% gains in PRVB and everyone should have sold 1/2 to take those gains and holding 1/2 long. We alerted MOMO later in the week and it looks solid as well. Currently with 5 open positions all looking technically sound or consolidating. We will look to possibly add 1-2 more alerts this week depending on market action.
We have hit 12 of our last 13 trades for Profits
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Short Term and Long Term Elliott Wave Views for the SP 500 Index
Short Term: Looks like a Wave 4 bottom at 3070 this past week, we had an 89 Fibonacci point correction from the Wave 3 highs. Now should continue higher to 3250 plus possibly in Wave 5 up of 3.
Long Term: (Wave 3 of Intermediate 3 of Major 3). The long term Primary Wave 5 up from Feb 2016 lows continues, we are in Major Wave 3 up from the 2345 lows of Major 2 in Dec 2018. We continue up in Intermediate Wave 3 of Major Wave 3 of Primary 5, this could extend to 3270-3350 area eventually before completed… see updated chart
Long Term View: Int 3 of Major 3 underway to over 3200 likely
Bullish pattern continues to prove itself, we have maintained our long term bullish view all during the recent few months of volatility. See updated notes on chart.
Click to Enlarge
Short Term View: Wave 5 of 3 continues higher
Wave 4 pullback bottomed at 3070 this past week, then surged late in week as Wave 5 up of 3 begins. Looking at 3250 area loosely as possible, but one week at a time.
Click to Enlarge
Market Notes and Indicator Charts:
- Fear and Greed index pulls back to 70 from 78 week prior as wave 4 correction hits
- Market pulled back to work off sentiment last week as projected here in Dec 2nd report
Greed Chart update (*CNN Fear and Greed index chart)
Click to Enlarge
Weekly ideas and tips on Swing Trading Success: Fundamentals and Technicals both!
I like to use a combination of Fundamental analysis along with behavioral pattern chart analysis to help reduce overall risk in my swing trade alerts to members. Some things you can’t avoid like a dilutive offering, an unexpected poor earnings release or outlook in a conference call, etc. However, you can minimize risk by not just looking at a chart and buying as well. I usually start with a nice looking chart pattern and then check share structure, valuation, catalysts, management, and the like to see if I can marry the two up for a swing trade. This is where my 70% track record of success over 10 years comes from in my opinion. If all you do is buy charts, your likely going to have issues at some point. Sometimes the timing is off a little on a swing alert and the stock pulls back further than planned, but if I feel strong with the fundamental analysis I’m less likely to panic out or make a bad exit decision.
Swing Trade Candidates: A list of ideas to consider
Recent Results: CDLX up 9.4% last week, comes off the list but we have hit that one a few times now for a big move off the weekly list. VGR was up almost 10% at one point before pulling back. CZZ was up 7% last week, so that comes off our list as well. RDFN also up 10% last week breaking out, we are long at SRP on RDFN already.
This week we have an updated list of some ideas for the intermediate window. We issue official alerts to SRP members via Text and Email and Post and they may or may not come off this list.
Updated 12/8/19- 2 new ideas INMD, MHO. Others repeated and a few deleted that ran up.
INMD- CHART LINK
5 weeks tight near highs. We have profiled this back at $24 it ran to $55!! Now settling in the 45 ranges, could consolidate a bit more and break out again. Recent IPO in the Aesthetic sector.
MHO- CHART LINK
7 week base, builds single family homes. Near 52 week high breakout.
SEDG- CHART LINK
18 Week base overall, supplier of DC Optimizer inverters to solar industry, 2nd week in row on list . Slight upturn last week but can still run.
EDU- CHART LINK
7 week base near highs for Chinese Education provider. We had this on the list weeks back and it broke out, but now building another base. 2nd week in a row on the list, consolidated last week in the range.
CARG- CHART LINK
4 Weeks over all base, 2nd week in a row on list. Pulled back last week but as long as 36.30 area holds looks good to me on this dip. Online automotive marketplace provider.
VGR- CHART LINK
13 Week base near highs, Cigarette maker. 2nd week in a row on list. Last week was up 10% at one point, then pulled back, but the overall pattern still bullish.
ELY- CHART LINK
9 Week base, golf equipment maker. 2nd week in a row on list, still consolidating.
JCOM- CHART LINK
9 week corrective pattern. Internet, Fax, Voice calling and other online services provider. 3rd week in a row on the list, 94 area key support.
MOMO- CHART LINK
5 weeks corrective pattern pattern near 52 week highs. Chinese provider of mobile based social networking platform, growing rapidly at reasonable PE ratio. 3rd week in a row on list. SRP current position.
QIWI- CHART LINK
8 week consolidation after correction. Online payments provider in Russia with reasonable PE ratio. 3rd week in row on list, moved up 3% last week, but can still climb.
SNBR- CHART LINK
8 weeks tight base not far from 52 week highs. Reasonable PE ratio. 579 Retail stores offering sleep number bedding. 3rd week in row on the list.
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