23 Sep Weekly Elliott Wave Forecasts and Trading Ideas Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of September 23rd
Results and Notes: Consolidation in SP 500 continues for now
A small set back out of Tariff talks in late Friday pushed the market back a bit after trying to attack all time highs or close this past week. Volatility in some of our names like FNKO which we got out of with profits before the plunge late in the week thanks to our sell 1/2 rule and closing the rest at a profit. We issued a new re-entry on XXXX on Friday after a strong pullback and after we took 15% gains early in the week. XXXX continues to consolidate in a 5 week base. We will be adding more positions this week.
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Short Term and Long Term Elliott Wave Views for the SP 500 Index
Short Term: Got close to all time highs as wave 3 up continues. Should breakout to the upside following this multi week consolidation.
Long Term: (Wave 3 of Intermediate 3 of Major 3). The long term Primary Wave 5 up from Feb 2016 lows continues, we are in Major Wave 3 up from the 2345 lows of Major 2 in Dec 2018. All time highs ahead.
Long Term View: Int 3 of Major 3 underway to over 3000 made up of 5 waves
3rd of a 3rd continues higher as projected. All time highs ahead likely, may pull back some first
Click to Enlarge
Short Term View: Wave 3 up
Ran into some resistance, 12 day overall consolidation in 1 to 1.5% range. Could see large move out of this range early in this coming week, if it’s down its still a normal pullback or part of a minor wave 2.
Click to Enlarge
The 20 month cycle I wrote about 4 weeks ago is playing out as we break to the upside.
Market Notes and Indicator Charts:
- Market digesting recent large move up off Wave 2 lows, 12 day base pattern here coming into Monday
Weekly ideas and tips on Swing Trading Success: Taking gains with discipline
More often than not, this works out. Sell when your giddy, buy when your depressed… easier said than done!
We always sell 1/2 of any swing position at SRP when up 8% or more. Its a hard and fast rule. Sometimes we can ride the final 1/2 to higher gains and sometimes the final 1/2 pulls back harder than planned and we exit for smaller gains or break even etc. This past week was good example of why we always do this. FNKO had broken out big for us, running up out of a 7 month base pattern finally that we projected. We sold 1/2 at 8-10% gains and then moved the stop up on the final 1/2. It then continued higher, up as much as 13% at one point on the final 1/2. Then the news came out of nowhere as if often does… insiders were filing to sell shares, no dilution but still exiting the stock. The stock tanked, we got out in the mid 24’s for a still 5% gain on the final 1/2. By the end of the week, the stock was in the mid 21’s and we would have given up all of our profits had we not followed those sell rules. Stay disciplined and take gains on the way up, hold 1/2 and move the stop up.
Swing Trade Candidates:
Each week we try to provide 5-15 Swing Trade ideas to consider as part of our SRP service. We often pick a few from the list during the week as actual alerts and or names from our other research that are not on this list. Some weeks we pick none from the list, but gives us some stock to watch as action unfolds. Some of these names are already SRP Open positions. DOCU and ESTC continue from last weeks report.
DOCU- CHART LINK
Post IPO rally after months of low end consolidation. Provides online e-signature platform for documents and more.
ESTC- CHART LINK
Also has been on this list off and on lately. Looks finally ready to break out of 7 month range like we saw with FNKO this past week for SRP Members. Data search platform that extends to multiple industries.
EDU- CHART LINK
Off and on our list of late, 4 weeks tight pattern near highs for Chinese provider of Educational tutoring services.
INMD- CHART LINK
Also on our list lately a few times, broke out after the IPO and our list price at $21 to $26 area, then pulled back to $24 area and bounced back to 26. Exhibiting relative strength. 7 week Post IPO could press higher. Israeli company with Medical technologies business.
QIWI- CHART LINK
Also on our list a few weeks back. In a 5 week corrective base pattern. Tested 10 week line. Operates online payment systems in Russia, this pullback may be a better set up for entry if 22 area holds. $23 are currently.
STNE- CHART LINK
12 week corrective base pattern. Brazilian company providing financial tech solutions. Carving out right side of base pattern.
ACGL- CHART LINK
3 weeks tight base near highs. Insurance, Mortgage, and reinsurance provider with reasonable PE. Lower interest rates are good for real estate, mortgage, homebuilders etc.
HMSY- CHART LINK
8 week corrective base, may break back to upside. Cost containment services for health insurance providers etc.
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