15 Jul Weekly Elliott Wave Forecasts and Trading Ideas Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of July 15th
Results and Notes:
We issued 3 new swing alerts this past week at SRP for our Premium Members. We are up 15% on one of our open positions and our 5th position rallied 7% on Friday and we are up 11% on that one. We should be active again this week as the Wave 3 up continues in the SP 500 and markets.
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Short Term and Long Term Elliott Wave Views for the SP 500 Index
Short Term: Wave 1 of 5 of Int 3 up from 2728 Int wave 2 lows. We hit all time highs again and we have said this will continue with normal pullbacks. For now still in Wave 1 up as all pullbacks have been too shallow to qualify as a normal Wave 2 correction. Watching the 13 day EMA line which is now around 2973 as key support for Wave 1.
Long Term: Major Wave 3 will continue to push all time highs intermediate to long term, with 3100 initial major resistance on SP 500. Intermediate 3 of Major 3 unfolding which is usually the most bullish of waves (2728 bottom of Intermediate 2)
Long Term View: Int 3 of Major 3 underway to over 3000
Wave 3 of Major 3 continues the most bullish usually of all Elliott Wave patterns. We are looking for north of 3050 as discussed prior with 3100 area likely resistance in time.
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Short Term View: Wave 1 of 5 still on going
Watching 13 day EMA Line for key support, Wave 1 continues as part of this powerful “3rd of a 3rd” Elliott Wave pattern.
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Market Notes and Indicator Charts:
- Chart and notes on IWM ETF (Russell 2000 could break out of 2 week base)
- Chart and notes on XBI ETF (Biotech index forming bull long term flag, still lagging)
Russell 2000 lagging, but could surge to highs in 2nd half of 2019, and near term pop
Biotech Index forming massive Bull Triangle after huge run to June 2018 highs.
Weekly ideas and tips on Swing Trading Success: Fundamentals do count!
Even with Swing Trading, my philosophy is to find the top fundamentally sound ideas that combined with a nice chart set up have higher odds of swing trade profit success. Many traders just focus on the charts, and some just on fundamentals. I try to combine the two to look for the overall best risk adjusted opportunities. This way, if you get caught in a trade and maybe missed a stop loss point, perhaps you can recover with those stronger fundamentals eventually playing out. This has led to a 70% near 10 year swing trade success rate since I started initial online services in 2009. Other keys I have covered in prior reports include selling 1/2 on the way up when up 8% or more, and using stop losses near the close of a trading day to avoid intra-day stop loss runs that are often algo based.
Swing Trade Candidates:
Each week we provide 8-15 Swing Trade ideas to consider as part of our SRP service. We often pick a few from the list during the week as actual alerts and or names from our other research that are not on this list.
FND- CHART LINK
Floor and Decor is in a nice 11 week corrective base pattern but the right side of the base is now moving higher.
ESNT- CHART LINK
11 week base, this is close to breaking out. Has been on the weekend list numerous times of late. PMI provider.
PSNL- CHART LINK
Recent IPO in the Genetics Testing space, moving up after correction and gains may continue ahead. 16 day IPO base pattern so far, could re-attack initial highs of 31.88 from 25 area.
PYPL- CHART LINK
4 week tight base near highs for Paypal. Earnings due 7/24
PAYS- CHART LINK
Innovative Pre-Paid Card programs provider. A bit extended but perhaps buy on a pullback towards $15
FVRR- CHART LINK
Post IPO smash back to near $21 IPO levels now with JP Morgan as the underwriter. This stock could hit $21 and reverse up. Can look to buy from 21-23 with stop at 20 as an idea. Specializes in contractors who hire themselves out for online projects and more.
LINX- CHART LINK
Recent IPO, 12 day Post IPO consolidation near offering price. Brought public by Goldman Sachs. Linx Core provides business management systems to more than 45,000 retailers in Latin America and started in 1986.
CHNG- CHART LINK
11 day Post IPO base. Healthcare Payment processing and more. Steady cash flows, in a nice trading range.
LPLA- CHART LINK
11 week base near highs for this Financial Services provider. On our list multiple times recently. Earnings 7/24
MNST- CHART LINK
11 week base for alternative beverages provider. Earnings due 8/6
PGR- CHART LINK
6 week base nearing highs. Auto insurance provider in 50 states.
CAE- CHART LINK
9 week overall base nearing highs breakout. 2nd week on list. Flight simulators.
PRVB- CHART LINK
5 weeks tight base after Type 1 Diabetes results stunned market. Has multi month potential as well.
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