07 Sep Weekly State of the Markets and Swing Trading Ideas Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of September 7th
“Your calls are very good! Nice work! You are calm, collected and cool in this Volatile Market. I appreciate your excellent work…just evaluate, execute and leave each day behind for tomorrow’s action; which is extremely difficult to do! I am learning…under your clear and simple instructions.(I have a hard time trusting when money is concerned! LOL!!)Thank you!!” 7/9/20 -@sproutup1 on Stocktwits (3x ETF service)
- SP 500 terminates Wave 3 and may have completed Wave 4 price low already
- Wave 5 to all time highs targets 3815 area for now, will update and monitor
- Multiple reasons to be cautious
- Biotech needs to hold 100 area on XBI ETF (bounced late in week, see chart)
- Gold 6 week base still bullish (See Chart)
- New Swing Trade list
Stock ,ETF , and SP 500 Futures Swing Trading plus Growth Stock Investing options for members
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It’s best to belong to three or four of my subscription offerings at the same time to have the most opportunities across all market conditions with multiple shots on goal! Asset allocation as a Trader is key for long term success in all environments– Dave
Another great week across the 4 services for members:
- Stocks- Multiple winning trades taken prior to market drop- See srpmembers.com for track record, we got out of DOYU, MWK, TFFP and more prior to the big correction
- 3x ETF- Holding 2 positions both of which rebounded on Friday
- ES Futures- Guidance for a high of 3564 was spot on last week, advice to scalp long Friday also paid off
- TPS- Great add points now in several growth names after pullback last week
General Market Summary: Updated Banister Market and Elliott Wave Views on SP 500
SP 500 and Market Commentary
I’ve had two views, both long term bullish but slightly different Elliott Wave counts of late. I settled about two weeks ago on the one you see in this weekly report. We completed a 3rd of a 3rd wave at 3588 this past week, then a 2 day downdraft to 3349. On Friday I said to the ES Futures service that those brave could scalp a long ES trade (3364 at the time) for a bounce up with a 3350 area stop, that worked out.
After a powerful “3rd of a 3rd” the next 4th wave correction will often be harsh and quick in terms of price action. This is what we saw with a near 7% drop from top to bottom in 2 trading days and a bounce on Friday off the 3349 lows. We could revisit those lows again for a re-test or possible have slightly deeper drop to 3265-3300 area as well.
The bulk of the decline though if my wave count is right is possibly over. The next move is to 3815 plus in Wave 5 of 3 once I confirm 4 is officially over.
After Wave 5 of 3 hits all time highs, we will likely get a deeper pullback in a larger degree Wave 4 which would run through the election window more than likely as uncertainty could creep in. We also have the current September-October window as volatile with September usually seeing end of quarter window dressing and then October is the Mutual Fund tax fiscal year end, so lots of tax selling and positioning as well.
With the above Wave count and Seasonality all said , we still must be on guard for deeper than expected pullbacks, so watch 3350 area as key, if that falls hard brace for a deeper correction down to 3265 area possible… stay nimble.
Caution remains warranted.
Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, QQQ ETF etc have parabolic type charts and parabolas always correct hard at some point. We saw cracks in the armour this past week for sure.
Bullish Advisors are running way too hot at 61.5% Bulls and only 16.4% Bears which is at historical extremes
Call buying by retail investors is at all time highs
SP 500 updated Daily and Weekly chart views: Wave 4 may have completed this past week quickly
Gold Update: 2300 intermediate target after consolidation
Still setting up in Bullish 6 week base
1910 area support
Biotech: Needs to hold 100 area
Consider joining for powerful upside potential in a portfolio of 7-12 names that is dynamic and moving. We closed out several for 60% plus gains lately to make room for new positions. Among them VIR, ATOM, TFFP, OTRK naming a few big winners for members.
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Each week I try to come up with some fresh ideas, repeats as well if they have not broken out yet, or I remove prior ideas if they already ran up.
New Ideas: Keep in mind market still vulnerable near term
XP- 12 week flat base, Brazilian Securities Brokerage
KL- 6 week base testing 10 week line, Gold producer
PFSI- 5 week base near highs, testing 10 week line. Residential Mortgages
MRVL- 9 week base just above 10 week line. Chip play
DOYU- 5 week overall base near highs, pulled back last week
APPS- On our list recently, 5 week overall base, pulling back now to test 10 week line (Mobile software apps etc)
HZNP- 5 week corrective pullback base testing 10 week line. Rheumatic Diseases
TENB- Pulling back off highs, on our list recently. Cyber Secuirty Platform
VIRT- 26 week base breaking out this past week in down week, a current SRP position
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