21 Jun Weekly State of the Markets and Swing Trading Ideas Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of June 22nd
“At a time like this, I really appreciate people like you who have chosen to give back/pay it forward when it’d prob be easier to just trade for yourself. Thanks for literally sharing the wealth!” Cam- 3x ETF member
- Two Wave counts presented for SP 500
- MULTI Year chart and notes on SP 500
- Swing Trade List, last week again we had multiple Swing Trade Winners (CHGG, LVGO, GDDY, DXCM, DT) New list this week updated at bottom of report
- Biotech 2 year breakout details and near term XBI ETF targets and charts
- Downside levels to watch if we pullback in markets (SP 500 charts)
- Last weeks winning moves in the various swing services
- Bulls vs Bears survey updated numbers
Stock ,ETF , and SP 500 Futures Swing Trading plus Growth Stock Investing
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It’s best to belong to three or four of my subscription offerings at the same time to have the most opportunities across all market conditions with multiple shots on goal! Asset allocation as a Trader is key for long term success in all environments– Dave
Another great week across the 4 services for members:
- Stocks- Entered PRVB 14.50-15 on the dip Wednesday, it hit 17 on Friday close, up 12-15%. We took 8-10% gains in CATS on 1/2, we alerted ATOM under 10 late in week and are up nicely already.
- 3x ETF- Booked 10% gains on TZA continuing our 8 month string of 75% plus success rates
- ES Futures- Booked a 65 point and 86 point gain early in week going long ES Futures ($5 per point per $1,500 position)
- TPS- New research report released and saw big moves up in VIR, PRVB, and others in the portfolio!
Swing Trading and Momentum Stock Services:
Flagship SRP Stock Swing Trading and Market Forecast Service: Track Record is online, 10 years since August 2009 inception, 70% profit rate trading stocks based on fundamental and behavioral patterns both. Morning Pre Market reports, Buy and Sell alerts, follow on advice daily on all positions, SP 500 Banister Wave models daily. Monthly, Quarterly, Annual options.
3x ETF Service on Stocktwits.com : $40 a month, Track Record is online. Pull more money from the market bull or bear with my Behavioral based and contrarian approach to 3x ETF trading! We solely trade 3x ETF Bull and Bear pairs as the market dictates. Read up at The3xetftrader.com Use the Subscribe tab to join off your desktop on Stocktwits
Auto-Trade ES Futures service– ESAlerts.com $149 a Month, $349 Quarterly, We auto execute Micro-MINI contracts $1,400 per contract roughly for members who are too busy to handle alerts and trading on their own.
Tipping Point Stocks– A long term momentum growth stock service looking for 50-200% gains. Recent sample VIR! Join and add momo growth stock plays to your swing trading! Email me for coupon
General Market Summary: Updated Banister Market and Elliott Wave Views on SP 500
SP 500 and Other commentary:
Be advised we are coming into a volatile period at the end of the June quarter. Window Dressing, Quarterly Stock/Bond re-balancing which would likely favor selling of stocks to re-balance to bonds, also Index Re-balancings (Russell 2000 etc) at end of next week. Expect volatility, some of which will make no sense but present opportunities. – Dave
Last Weeks SP 500 Forecast Note: June 14th Report:
“The drop was about 50% of the recent rally from 2760-3332, which is common. A pop up from here is also normal, lets see if the market can take out 3120-3130 in terms of the SP 500. If not, look for a C wave lower ahead.
Lets look for this bounce to maybe 3120-3130 on the SP 500, much above 3170 and I will have to re-evaluate the market patterns. Of note, this past week on Friday we did see a big move up in Airline and Cruise Line stocks, which is a little at odds with the calls for a 2nd wave this fall/winter for Covid-19. Something to watch. “
Well we did in fact rally up in a B wave hitting SP 500 highs during the week of 3155 before closing at 3097 on Friday’s Triple Witching expiration day. We did not get much above 3170 which was my high end marker to watch. So at this point a C wave down to 2910-2835 is still possible to complete an ABC Correction off the 3233 SPX highs.
That said, I can still maintain two views of the Elliott Wave patterns, and I hate to do that. I prefer to have one strong view (lightly held as they say) and then go from there. In my swing services I trade what I see in front of me and try not to get too far ahead of myself. The forecast models are only part of my work, but are an important first step.
I can make a case that we are in a new set of 5 waves up from the 2760 area, and if so after this pullback we rip higher to all time highs in a 3rd wave of 5 up. The other option remains valid that we are correcting that entire move of 5 waves from 2191 to 3300 area and this is a larger degree Wave 2 which would take SP 500 to 2835 or lower even.
With that said, I advise my various members on swing trading and take what comes at us each week. Last week we used TZA (3x ETF Short) the small caps to profit 10% in a few days for example. In other services we are long various stocks and making profits such as with PRVB, and in the futures service we made big profits going long the SP 500 (ES). Each week presents different opportunities and I have to be nimble to profit on the swing moves.
SP 500 views are presented below:
LONG TERM View, over 2.5 years we are up only 8% on SP 500 for Index buy and holders. This is why I swing trade for my members. Note that 2950 area is key and something to watch. 34 week EMA is at 2974
SUPER BULL Count: Close to starting up 3rd of a 3rd wave, which would push to all time highs perhaps in July (Put this at 30% probability)
ABC 2 preferred view: SP 500 drops near term to 2835-2910 to correct 5 wave advance, if not lower.
XBI ETF looks to be finally breaking out of a 2 year consolidation and ABC Correction pattern. This would target around $121 near term on the XBI ETF from $108 area for a nice move up if this is correct. Long term much higher.
XBI Charts: 5 week breakout and 2 year breakout views
Other Indicators and or Charts:
Investment Advisor’s extremely bullish with few Bears: (Contrarian signal)
One of the many indicators I use to help me feel more confident in my Elliott Wave projections includes Investment Advisor surveys. 54.9% Bullish Advisors vs only 18.6% Bears. Typically when we are at 3 to 1 ratio its at extremes, often near market interim tops. We are currently correcting that advance from March 23 lows.
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It’s a New Economy, think outside the box:
Each week I try to come up with some fresh ideas, repeats as well if they have not broken out yet, or I remove prior ideas if they already ran up.
Last weeks big winners were DXCM up 10%, CHGG up 19%, DT up 16.5% plus LVGO
Price per share doesn’t matter, what matters is % movement!
Repeated from Last week: (Consolidating or did not yet break out)
AMD 9 weeks consolidation base pattern for chip leader, 4th straight week on list
GDDY- 7 Week flat base, On the list again for 4th straight week even though it did move up alst week. Go Daddy seeing rise in revenues
GMAB- 2nd week in row on list, this was on my list in the 20 area weeks back as a Post IPO Biotech play. Now in the 26-27 area, but in a nice 7 week base near highs. It did move up last week off this list, but still looks good.
SAIL- 2nd week in row on list. 5 week base pattern right side of base. Identity software that assists organizations.
AAXN- 2nd week in row on list. Law enforcement devices like Body Cams etc. 3 week corrective base. Should see orders explode going forward given the police issues around the country
CORT- 5 week corrective base. Biotech with strong growth trying to break out of right side base. Started moving up late in week, this is an open SRP Swing Trade position
TW- 6 week Flat Base near highs for trading infrastructure provider
FB- 5 week flast base near highs for Facebook
TSM- 3 weeks tight base building a bullish right side of base for this chip maker
DBX- Back on the list, 7 week tight base for Drop Box, close to break out
BOX- Same vein as Drop Box, 5 weeks tight base
DOYU- Post IPO Breakout after 11 months. Chinese stocks getting hot, provide online gaming services
Read up on my various offerings to take advantage of Bull and Bear cycles in the markets below
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StockReversalsPremium.com– Swing Trading with SMS text, Email, and Post on each alert, morning pre market reports daily on the SP 500 forecasts, position updates, and strategy notes. 70% success rate in 6 years of advisory services! Track Record of 2019 and 2020 Trades
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ESAlerts.com- Auto Trading of Micro MINI contracts, $1,400 roughly per position size. $5 move for each 1 point SP 500 move. Trades executed on your behalf based on our Advisory automatically. For those too busy to follow alerts and trade on their own.
Great morning SP 500 Futures trading guidance and alerts! We keep you on the right side of the market direction and trades. Tax Favorable treatment, simple reporting to IRS, eligible for IRA and Regular Accounts both!
This service focuses on the SP 500 using my Wave based market behavioral models and then translates that to Futures Trading advice and alerts. Short term and long term views…morning updates, trades and more.