28 Jun Weekly State of the Markets and Swing Trading Ideas Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of June 29th
“At a time like this, I really appreciate people like you who have chosen to give back/pay it forward when it’d prob be easier to just trade for yourself. Thanks for literally sharing the wealth!” Cam- 3x ETF member
Notes: Several charts to review, market with lots of topping signals
- ABC wave 2 count takes over for SP 500 etc, could be some more downside ahead (Chart)
- End of quarter rotation, re-balancing having effects into month end
- Put to Call ratio rises after being abnormally low near market highs recently (Chart)
- A few indicators charted showing extreme exuberance readings for Tech etc vs SP 500 (See Charts)
- NASI Indicator toppy short term for NASDAQ stocks (Tech, Biotech) (Chart)
- Biotech should still lead, pulling back a bit after early surge last week
- Swing Trade ideas updated
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Another great week across the 4 services for members:
- Stocks- Closed out PRVB, CORT and part of ATOM for nice gains on all *8% plus*, raised cash levels high
- 3x ETF- Booked 14% gain on LABU early in week, entered TZA and DRV (Shorts) late in week
- ES Futures- Booked a 30 point gain early in week, guided members ahead of downside
- TPS- One of our recent plays is poised to double we think
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General Market Summary: Updated Banister Market and Elliott Wave Views on SP 500
SP 500 and Other commentary: TOPPING OUT?? Signals persist of irrational exuberance
Last Weeks SP 500 Forecast Note: June 21st Report
“We did not get much above 3170 which was my high end marker to watch. So at this point a C wave down to 2910-2835 is still possible to complete an ABC Correction off the 3233 SPX highs…
I can make a case that we are in a new set of 5 waves up from the 2760 area, and if so after this pullback we rip higher to all time highs in a 3rd wave of 5 up. The other option remains valid that we are correcting that entire move of 5 waves from 2191 to 3300 area and this is a larger degree Wave 2 which would take SP 500 to 2835 or lower even.”
The preferred view that we were correcting the rally from March 23 lows to 3233 highs came into clear play. I also had discussed the end of quarter stock/bond re-balancing that is coming, plus window dressing, and Russell Index changes causing issues. They did as we saw a lot of volatility last week.
Trading the behavioral waves
In the 3x ETF service first we were super bulls on Monday going long LABU (3x Bull Biotech) off last weeks bullish charts in the weekly report. We saw a 14% gain from our entry in 24 hours and took it. Later in the week we were working into BEAR positions via TZA and DRV 3x Bear ETF’s. So you have to be able to swing with the moves and anticipate them in advance to profit, and importantly TAKE PROFITS! In all my services we have profit taking methodologies that are deployed every time without fail.
The market should continue some volatility possibly for a few weeks after the 13 week rally. We also have the pension fund monies usually coming in early July after the re-balancing so this week should be volatile along with the Friday holiday for the 4th of July. A light volume trading week could exacerbate moves. Then we will be getting ready for the 2nd quarter earnings reports soon as well, prepare for some roller coaster action.
Keep your eyes on that 2910 and 2825-2830 zones for the SP 500, areas I’ve been pointing out for a few weeks as possible ABC Wave 2 bottoms
There are multiple warnings over last few weeks of topping indicators, see a few interesting charts in the “Other Indicators” section below. Short term issues are extremes in optimism and trading of tech stocks by retail investors, NASI momentum indicator for NASDAQ looking toppy etc, and MSCI Growth vs Value buying at extremes.
Charts below:
SP 500 ABC Pattern updated:
NASI momentum indicator Toppy
PUT TO CALL Ratio adjusting
Other Sentiment Indicators and or Charts: LOTS OF TOPPING INDICATORS
MSCI Growth to Value Stock ratio at soaring highs , higher than 1999, 2007, 2015 tops
*Source sentimenttrader.com
NASDAQ Trading volume vs SP 500 also at highs not seen since 1999 dot com bubble top
*Source sentimenttrader.com
Investment Advisor’s extremely bullish with few Bears: (Contrarian signal)
One of the many indicators I use to help me feel more confident in my Elliott Wave projections includes Investment Advisor surveys. 57.3% Bullish Advisors vs only 18.4% Bears. Typically when we are at 3 to 1 ratio its at extremes, often near market interim tops. We are currently correcting that advance from March 23 lows.
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Each week I try to come up with some fresh ideas, repeats as well if they have not broken out yet, or I remove prior ideas if they already ran up.
Last weeks big winners were BOX and CORT, action was rough late in week
Repeated from Last week: (Consolidating or did not yet break out)
GMAB- 3rd week in row on list, 3 week ascending base is bullish. This was on my list in the 20 area weeks back as a Post IPO Biotech play. Now in the 32 area, still looks good though.
SAIL- 3rd week in row on list. 6 week base pattern right side of base. Identity software that assists organizations.
AAXN- 3rd week in row on list. Law enforcement devices like Body Cams etc. 4 week corrective base. Should see orders explode going forward given the police issues around the country
TSM- 4 weeks tight base building a bullish right side of base for this chip maker
DOYU- Post IPO Breakout after 11 months. Chinese stocks getting hot, provide online gaming services, this has a nice 2 weeks tight base pattern, often explosive.
New Ideas:
SFM- 8 week corrective base with move up late in week. Sprout Farmers Market for Organic Food movement etc.
BJ- BJ’s in a 5 week base near highs. Looks poised to break out
NARI- 6 week Post IPO base, returning to list. Recent IPO of Venous disease solutions (Biotech)
DT- 2 weeks tight base near highs, once again on list. Security solutions provider for enterprises
FTNT- 8 week overall base for threat management systems provider
CHGG- Returning to list again, 8 week overall base, almost broke out to all time highs last week. E Book, Text Book etc College play
PLMR- Returning to list again, 5 week overall base near highs for Specialty Insurer
NBIX- 6 week base near 52 week highs for this Bio Pharmaceutical play
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