14 Jun Weekly State of the Markets and Swing Trading Ideas Report
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Weekly Stock Market and Trading Strategies Report Week of June 15th
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Notes:
- Market may have started ABC correction (8-13%) from highs
- % Bullish Investment Advisors still high at 56.9% vs 20.6% Bears (Contrarian bear signal)
- YTD: NASDAQ up 6.9%, SP 500 down 5.9%, Russell 2000 down 16.5%
- Market could bounce up further before another correction leg
Recent results and notes: Stock ,ETF , and SP 500 Futures Swing Trading Results
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We positioned for a market drop in the 3x ETF service with TZA. We saw it soar over 20% in one day and closed it out net for 11-13% gains this past week. Futures service hit for a 60 point win on stocktwits going short the market. TPS long term growth stock service saw SOLY and DYAI positions surge late in week and was #1 trending on stocktwits Friday. SRP Stock Trading service had big early gains on BLDP and FMCI, but had losses on 3 positions in the Thursday market crash. Overall a profitable week across the various services.
Swing Trading and Momentum Stock Services:
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General Market Summary: Updated Banister Market and Elliott Wave Views on SP 500
SP 500 and Other commentary:
Last Weeks SP 500 Forecast Note: June 7th Report:
“Bottom line is the uptrend remains intact, but we are finally hitting my 3200-3220 area projections and correction is now overdue possibly within days to a week or so… a 5th wave now nearing completion, which means a larger Wave 2 ABC of some type is due. This could take us back into the low 2800’s. The second option says we already had 5 waves up (which is what I’ve been working with), and we had an ABC correction to 2760’s. This is now the 1st wave of 5 new waves up from 2760 area.
In either event, a near term correction is getting close… many leading stocks are starting to show signs of getting tired”
This worked out as within a few days we had a major drop on Thursday of 6% on average across the major indexes and worse for the Russell 2000 small caps. We closed out TZA for big profits in the 3x ETF service right near the lows of the decline on Thursday late day. Friday the market bounced up in what is probably a B wave bounce.
I am now seeing this as the likely early start of a Wave 2 correction pattern, typically these are some type of ABC pattern. A down, B up, C down to complete a corrective wave and work off the high greed sentiment readings. We had several extreme greed readings in sentiment going into last week. Even with the correction to around 3000 on the SP 500 from 3232 highs (Almost 8%), we still have Bulls running hot at 57% for Advisors and only 21% Bears in recent surveys. (Those may have been completed prior to Thursday)
At the lows on Thursday we tested the 34 day EMA line on the daily charts which is a lower support line I often use for reversal entry points. The drop was about 50% of the recent rally from 2760-3332, which is common. A pop up from here is also normal, lets see if the market can take out 3120-3130 in terms of the SP 500. If not, look for a C wave lower ahead.
The Put to Call ratio I said last week was running at 5 year lows, so everything was setting up to correct from that 3200-3220 area I had pointed out in my services as a topping area.
Lets look for this bounce to maybe 3120-3130 on the SP 500, much above 3170 and I will have to re-evaluate the market patterns. Of note, this past week on Friday we did see a big move up in Airline and Cruise Line stocks, which is a little at odds with the calls for a 2nd wave this fall/winter for Covid-19. Something to watch.
That said, I expect a C wave to new low from the 3232 highs (Sub 2995) in the weeks ahead as most likely. 2910 area is possible and perhaps as low as 2835 area
Chart Update shows possible path ahead:
Other Indicators and or Charts:
Investment Advisor’s extremely bullish with few Bears: (Contrarian signal)
One of the many indicators I use to help me feel more confident in my Elliott Wave projections includes Investment Advisor surveys. Even coming into mid-week this past week, we had 56.9% Bullish Advisors vs only 20.6% Bears. This is at extremes and we saw a huge 1 day drop this past week, not a big surprise really. Traders or Advisors who were bearish coming into the past week or two were largely scorned, but proven right in the end.
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It’s a New Economy, think outside the box:
Each week I try to come up with some fresh ideas, repeats as well if they have not broken out yet, or I remove prior ideas if they already ran up.
Repeated from Last week: (Consolidating or did not yet break out)
AMD 8 weeks consolidation base pattern for chip leader, almost broke out before the Thursday carnage last week.
CHGG- 6 week corrective base, online education tools, textbooks, etc. provider. 3rd straight week on list
LVGO- 6 weeks tight base, written up many weeks ago before huge run, now consolidating. Remote medical management devices. Almost broke out this past week before the Thursday pullback.
GDDY- 6 Week flat base, On the list again for 3rd straight week after being on a few weeks ago and moving up sharply. Go Daddy seeing rise in revenues and in a 3 week tight base now ear the highs
DXCM- Provides remote monitoring for Diabetes patients. 2nd week in a row on list, this was on our list before breaking out several weeks ago, has corrected/consolidated to 10 week EMA line.
BLDP- 22 week overall base pattern. Fuel Cell Technology for transportation/shipping sectors. Broke out this past week and we took profits at SRP trading service, pulled back hard Thursday, but back up Friday. Looks good still.
New Ideas:
ZTO- Chinese shipping and logistics. Was on our last many weeks ago before moving up sharply. Now close to breaking out of a 5 week base near 52 week highs
SAIL- 4 week base pattern right side of base. Identity software that assists organizations.
AAXN- Law enforcement devices like Body Cams etc. 2 week ascending base. Should see orders explode going forward given the police issues around the country.
CORT- 4 week corrective base. Biotech with strong growth trying to break out of right side base.
GMAB- This was on my list in the 20 area weeks back as a Post IPO Biotech play. Now in the 26-27 area, but in a nice 6 week base near highs.
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