18 NOV MEEC UPDATE CALL AND BIVI NOTES
Posted at 10:26h
in Portfolio Updates
Had a phone call this morning with MEEC very bullish, notes below the BIVI update
BIVI- 5.44 new uptrend high today
The stock up from 3.90 report and has potential to get to $40 a share ahead based on the comparative valuation of SAVA and relative data that insiders say is 2x better than the cognitive data they reported on Alzheimers in 2021 that caused the stock to run to 100. SAVA now at 1.6 Billion valuation, If I use FULLY DILUTED 40 million shares for BIVI that puts the stock at $40 a share, cut that in half twice and we can look for $10 post conference possible. Insiders indicate there are two large biotech firms looking to possibly take down and entire raise post conference. They filed a Shelf Registration and upon SEC approval they can sell shares at attractive prices when best for shareholders. I’m told we MAY get news prior to the Nov 30-Dec 2nd conference and they look forward to their 3 presentations on Alzheimers at the conference. I’m still buying. The stock dips to the 13 day EMA Line often then tends to rally again. It remains well below peer group valuations here.
11/18 update call with CEO Rick Mcpherson
Below are my quick notes from today’s call. The stock is materially undervalued and they expect to be on the NYSE by end of 1st quarter 2023 if all goes well (Requires $2 a share price, and CEO says no need to reverse split or raise money)
Need to get on better exchange, nobody can put them into their accounts… brokers and institutions limited right now so mostly retail traders on the stock
End of January plant to be onto the Canadian TSX exchange, allows investors to get in with Retirement accounts and more. Doesn’t require reverse or a raise. They do not want to do either of those right now. They will get that story out aggressively.
1st quarter 2023 will move ahead with application for NYSE, several meetings already. Have a path forward they feel they can meet in first quarter. Getting the story in front of larger group of people who have not seen or heard about the company.
Will start the year at 26 million revenue run rate on core business just from contracts in hand. 2022 will be about 20 million estimated. He expects to add to that base of contracts between now and end of year for 2023 and onwards and can foresee 35 million in 2023 revenues.
2023 projections will be just starting at 26m plus range, continuing with pace of development should have very strong early 2023 foundation. This should move enterprise value higher and allow for possible NYSE exchange listing. They have several pending potential new customers to announce in next 1-3 months he said as well to add to that projection.
Lawsuit goes to trial next fall if not settled, could likely get a settlement in 2023 before that officially goes to trial. That one time potential could make major impact on enterprise value as well
They have 29 different power stations still hiding underneath the protection of the court case, any positive movement which they expect due to discovery. All of those plants will be exposed and have to come to the table to make agreements.
That could add 25-35 million a year in revenue to the base already in place for 2023, which he expects well into the 30’s.
Share Count: 89 Million fully diluted
12 million range of profitability if they do 35 million in revenues in 2023 which he expects. That includes no upside for litigation potential against the major corporations. A lot of their expenses have been from fighting this court case, so those will all come back to them in spades potentially.
Rare Earth update: Were frustrated with the prior JV to do testing etc. They believe they can extract rare elements at a lower cost and higher efficiency. They are developing pure extraction technologies right now, to put in place before they can enhance the entire process. Waste water, coal ash pond residue etc is the target zones as well for remediation. That core area is being developed, after which point the extraction process can follow on behind it.
Path to $2… 35m next year, 10-12m profit to bottom line. 3x profitability with nothing else thrown in for upside and conservative numbers. Working on Southeast Asia possibilities as well with news in 1st quarter 2023.
Fair value if we take just 10x 2023 projected 10 million of earnings at 90 million share count is $1.10 a share from 37 cents now. Once we get some larger investors upon listings this should push much higher in time.
This is without any upside from the court cases, SouthEast Asia, Rare Earth Developments, and new contracts outside of what they feel is already locked down for 2023. Imagine a 100 million settlement for the 29 infringing powerplants plus new contracts as your big upside, that puts the stock at $5 plus with a NYSE listing, bigger volumes etc.
This is not the time to sell the stock, I would buy up to 50 cents to add. Also management has an agreement in place with a recent debt re-structuring to buy back more shares at 50 cents from the lender, a recent solid 3rd quarter profitable report and strong tailwinds.