Be cautious with the market and your investments at this time:

Our updated September 2nd 2015 view. Another 12% decline is likely ahead after this C wave rally up…

SRP Wednesday 9/2 Market Forecast Update copied from our Premium Service:

Many of you are familiar with Fibonacci ratios and numbers, 1, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55 and so forth.  They make up a big piece of human behavorial dynamics as they relate to stock market sentiment and Elliott Wave patterns.  We use them a lot to help map out direction and figure out why the SP 500 for example stops and rallies at certain levels.  They are usually not random at all, and almost always Fibonacci  ratio related to prior moves.
Right now the 34 month (Fibonacci number) moving average for the SP 500 is at 1867.  Did you notice we hit 1867 twice recently and bottomed?
The recent rally of 126 points from 1867-1993 was just retraced yesterday by a Fibonacci .618% ratio to 1914 on the nose!!
So the A wave from 1867 was a 55% (Fibonacci number) retracement of the 2091-1867 decline.  The drop to 1914 is a .618% retracement of the 126 point rally.
So now we can use these clues to project one of two near term scenarios
1. We rally back up in a “C” wave of an ABC counter-trend rally off the 1867 lows.  This C wave will either be .618, .786. or equal to the A wave which was 126 points.
Take 1914 low, add 126 (The same rally of A 1867-1993)… and we will hit 2040 on the SP 500 and fill in gaps as well. Then we have another decline in a big C wave down to 1730.
Or take .618 of the 126 point rally we had, add that to 1914 and we hit the 1993 recent high again and then decline (Or close to 1993)
Or… we fall back to 1867, which would be a .618 retracement of the 224 point decline subtracted from the 1993 highs, puts in a triple bottom and we really temporarily again… this is why 1867 right now is key to watch…
So our point is what?  You can get totally lost in these numbers, but we wanted to point out that Fibonacci ratios make up a piece of our forecasting work and help us to  be guided in the maze and the mud at times.
Near term we therefore would expect a C wave rally of an ABC move from 1867, then once over that would mark B…. and then a large C wave down to 1730 remains our intermediate forecast for the SP 500.
Make no mistake though, we still think 1730 is likely to be hit and we are at 1914 on the SP 500, so no matter the Fibonacci math or the near term path, we believe the intermediate risk remains to the downside and high cash positions, short positions via 3x ETF’s and quick trades are the order of the day for now.
We also think Gold and Oil are putting in cycle bottoms…which we plan to act on  actually soon…
You and your team deserve all the success you are getting! You are making a big difference in our lives, helping us not get too shaken up when the rest of the market is panicking around us.  All the best!
Michael Hsu- SRP Member 3/13/15

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