Weekend Stock Report Dec 21st- 11 new ideas and more

If you are not signed up for our Free service, you can receive the Weekend Editions, “Stock of the Week” reports, Business Disruptor research reports, and intermittent updates by signing up today.  Our Stock of the Week is already up 5% in 24 hours that you missed last Thursday if you were not a member. The last one rallied 8% in two weeks even with the market meltdown.  We also just gave out a new Biotech for 2015 symbol late last week. Join free with name and email, we follow all anti-spam rules.

free sign up

 

A crazy week that basically ended up 3.4% taking back the prior week’s 3.5% losses in the SP 500 index.  Lots of volatility with the combination of Tax selling and year end positioning, FOMC meetings, Oil gyrations and geopolitical turmoil in Russia.  The bottom line though was we said last weekend to look for 1980 to be a support area and a 38% fibonacci retracement pivot before a Santa Claus rally.  The market bottomed at 1973 and the Santa rally ensued with vigor.  We closed the week not far off the all time highs.  We are looking for 2133 as our intermediate pivot resistance target for the SP 500 ahead.

Some additional market metric notes include the NYSE Short interest declining dramatically over the past few weeks to 12 month lows.  At this point we are not sure if that is bullish or bearish, but we read it for now as bullish. The percentage of bullish advisors is also only at 49%, whereas the highs in the 4th quarter were approaching 59% at one point and as high as 63% in 2014.  We read that as neutral to bullish. The fear gauge as tracked by CNN hit 2 year extreme lows on Wednesday this past week, and from there we had a sharp rally.  We continue to keep an eye on the big picture by looking at the NYSE index currently at 10,890 and the highs to take out are 11,108 made in September.

1221 nya

StockReversalsPremiumAt the SRP service we took gains in EXAS at 17% and a few other stocks at 7.5% swings on each.  We also initiated a new position in a post IPO stock AVOL late in the week which rallied up about 5% for us as Oil turned up on Friday. Consider Joining our premium members in whipping the market with great swing positions and long term plays sprinkled in.

This week we have a 1/2 day on Wednesday and a closed day on Christmas Thursday.  So only 3.5 trading days this week, and Friday will be a light volume day of little consequence.  Effectively a 2 1/2 day trading week.

We have some notes on a list of stocks that appear attractive and a few of which are likely to hit our Alerts at some point near term.

CTLT-  We actually traded this one already for gains we took over a week ago, but it continues to consolidate in a 4 week base pattern.

RH-  Restoration hardware is turning the retail business upside down. We last commented on this one many weeks ago in a weekend report around $84.  After a strong quarterly report the stock is at all time closing highs now on what looks like a Cup base without a handle.  If the stock pulls back decently its probably a buy in the $90 ranges.

CSL-  Carlisle companies is in an 8 week base and looks poised to run to highs

HTLD- Heartland Express trucking company is in a 5 week base near highs and this sector is heating up with lower gasoline prices.

EA-  Electronic Arts is in an 8 week “ascending” base pattern, and these can be powerful.  We profiled it briefly a few weeks back in a weekend report about 10% below current pricing, which is near 52 week highs. Management has done an amazing job of changing the strategy for gaming over the past 12 months or so and its paying off.

FB-  Also nearing a possible 6 month plus base breakout. Facebook is spending more money and will see a reduction in profit growth ahead but at the same time innovation and ROI for the ad’s they producer for their media buyers is making them extremely profitable and fast growing.  We first wrote it up at $28 on Seeking Alpha as bullish in 2013 when the world hated the stock.  Now nearing $80 it may be a buy soon again for a breakout.

OSUR-  Healthcare/Med equipment firm breaking out of a 6 month base to highs

EIGI-  We had this on the list a few weeks ago, it pulled back hard and then popped 19% to 52 week and all time highs last week.  The company provides cloud-based services such as website design to help small and midsize businesses succeed online. 59% profit growth expected in the 4th quarter to 24 cents per share, stock near $19

VRX- Valeant Pharmaceuticals looks like a possible 10 month base breakout coming on a cup and handle formation

SCOR-  Also on the weekend edition a few weekends back, it sat around and last week finally broke out of a 4 week base to new highs.  ComScore is a leading internet technology company that provides “Analytics for a Digital World”.

Best to your trading this week ahead and a Happy Holidays period to you and your families.

Weekend Stock Edition Dec 6

Recent closed out SRP Swing positions: Closed out EEFT and TSRA for 6.2% and 6.8% swing gains. Closed out KING for 13-14% swing gains.  Closed out ULTA for 8-9% swing gains. Open gains in CTLT at 8% and EXAS at 19% amongst others. Consider joining us for weekly actionable alerts!

The Weekend Edition Dec 6 2014

We thought we would start off this Weekend Edition with a quote from Investors Business Daily Dec 8th edition (basically their weekend paper)

The term “stock picker’s market” is a cliche, but it certainly applies to The IBD 50. Some names are working well. Others, well, not so much.   The IBD 50 capped its fourth straight weekly gain Friday. It’s gained around 4% over that time, compared with a gain of 3% for the Nasdaq and 2% for the S&P 500.   The IBD 50 might be starting to come back to life, but it’s still not an easy environment to make consistent money in. For growth investors, it’s a time to proceed cautiously with new buys.

You’ll note that we have said at SRP that many stocks are consolidating and causing impatience on the part of investors. We have also written some articles in recent weekends about the same thing. So as we put together our list of swing positions, keep in mind they can consolidate awhile or seemingly get little to no traction. They are up 5%, then down a few % and then back up all in a 5-8 trading day window.  The market as a whole is only up about 1% in the last 4 weeks, so be aware that sometimes its rough sledding, but we still soldier on.  To wit, at our Premium service (www.stockreversalspremium.com) we closed out some profitable swing positions in the past few weeks among them KING, EEFT, TSRA, ULTA with one loser FIVE thrown in. We have several right now at SRP that are in nicely paper profit positions such as CTLT and NXPI to name just a few of 7 currently open.

However recent market trading nevertheless has required nimble action and faster than usual profit taking in our opinion.  Though we remain bullish into the spring of 2015, we have to work within the current environs for our subscribers for best results. Sometimes and in many cases patience does pay off when a growth stock is in a base pattern. We got long EXAS on Oct 20th week at 23.50 average, and then for 7 weeks nothing happened really. Up and down trading, but we held even down to $22.20 per share when we were down 6-7%.  As of Friday’s close we are up 19.6% by being patient and focusing on the valuation, catalyst, and not getting shaken out… know what you own, it can pay off big by not panicking on down days.

Here is another quote from IBD this weekend: 

one of the difficulties of this uptrend. Opportunities are fleeting and require quick action under foggy circumstances.   Once action is taken, it may take weeks to discover if the opportunity truly was fruitful.   Breakouts in recent weeks have been slow to build a decent cushion. This makes the stocks tougher to hold because small gains can vanish in a flash.

So learn some patience in the market, and our opinion has always been that “stocks make their biggest moves in the shortest time frames, you must be in position prior to the move”.  We think  we are in position for several right now and we plan to add a few more this coming week.

SP 500:  The index remains in a Primary wave 5 uptrend from the 1820 Primary wave 4 lows.  Each bull cycle has 5 full Primary waves and we think this is the last wave structure up from the 2009 lows.  This could go as high as 2500 plus, but we expect near 2200 in the winter 2015 as likely.  It’s also a forecast and subject to change, but for now that is our view.

GOLD: Having trouble getting past 1231-1241 key long-term uptrend resistance, until it does we are avoiding the whipsaw action.

Below we list out 10 companies and notes that are making our short list of needing further review but looking attractive as swing position candidates near term. A few of these are possible alert candidates for our Premium service once we do some further drilling down and due diligence, we try to pick the best of the best near term opportunities every week.

ALXN- Alexion Pharmaceuticals.  7 Week Base pattern. Developer of Therapeutics with a recent 50% growth rate

EPAM-  Epam Systems. 6 Week Base pattern.  Has been on our watch list at SRP just this past week. Outsourced I.T. services provider

JAZZ-  Jazz Pharmaceuticals-  7 Week Base pattern. Has been on our list a few times recently. Specialty drugs, strong growth rate, reasonable PE ratio, 8 month base pattern.

URI-  United Rentals-  We were recommending this way back at $71 last summer now $114. Construction and Industrial rental equipment provider, well run, still reasonable PE ratio to growth rate.

EXPE- Expedia.com- Online travel services provider. A bit extended, may be a good buy on pullback

VRX- Valeant Pharmaceuticals- 3 weeks tight base pattern, long-term leader in Dermatology, Neurology etc branded drugs.  Reasonable PE to growth rate.

FDP- Fresh Delmonte- Fresh fruits and veggies food manufacturer. Growth may pick up in 2015

BLL- Ball Corporation- Metal and Plastic packaging manufacturer. Stock may  be a little extended short-term.

QLYS-  Qualys-  Cloud security provider, in a nice 5 week base.  Leader.

AMAT-  Applied Materials- Chip equipment maker, leader.  In a 5.5 month base, tends to  follow the market a bit but recently leading. Maybe a little extended short term.

Consider joining our Premium Service today and get Pre-market updates every day between 8am-9am est. Text/Email alerts for intermediate swing position trades every week (3-4 on average), follow ups daily on every position open. Text and Email alerts for selling, projections, entry ranges, and stops on all positions.

Click the logo to review details:

StockReversalsPremium

 

Weekend Report- Consolidations Are Annoying Eh?

sign up free

Sometimes those consolidations in a growth stock can drive an investor nuts.  It can be frustrating when the constant woodpecker like stream of ticker symbols on CNBC look better than your sideways stock. The Stocktwits traders seemingly busy banking gains on their hot stock of the day or week while your  fundamentally strong company sits there ad nauseum.  The tendency is to bail out on your well researched and fundamentally strong company and chase the hot girl up the street.   Surely your money will grow faster if you can just hitch your wagon to the hip water cooler talk special stock of the day or week right?

Sometimes at the SRP service we are sitting on several stocks that are trailing the market averages while they consolidate, or perhaps even correcting. Not only that, often the fundamentals are seemingly solidly in place yet the market doesn’t seem to care. Welcome to the public stock markets where people chase the latest hot IPO, such as this weeks  EYES which has a 900 million market cap and 2 million of annual sales. A company that has been around for 16 years and never made a dime of profit and has 117 million of accumulated losses. A company who had convertible bond debtholders they needed to pay off. Best way to do that is sell a sexy story and hire a sub-par underwriter at a low commission rate to sell your IPO to retail investors. Hey, it worked so we are not knocking them but we also wouldnt call this a fundamentally strong story either. That said, fundamentals don’t matter though when there is a classic Wall Street thin float IPO with a sexy story… no profits, but the story is water cooleresque man!  It’s all fun and games until the next quarterly report comes out and that formerly hot trading stock shows its true colors with actual numbers that may be a bit sobering and not so sexy no? With that said, we understand those day trader plays look tempting and often you can make a few bucks on them if you are quick, but you can also lose 15-20% of your trading dollars in 1-2 days when the sexy story wears thin.

What to do?  Avoid the temptation to jump off the wagon of your strong company just prior to that upside breakout, which you know is what will happen as soon as you sell right? A lot of the trading on a day-to-day and week to week basis on Wall Street is purely random in nature, and also 80% controlled by computer bots and pre-programmed trading movements.  One day your stock is sitting at $13.25 per share and the next morning its opening at $12.30 and there is no news and no explanation.  3 days later its back to $13.50 and you just sold out and lost money… sound familiar? A lot of that is programmed bots ripping retail shareholders off by tripping stop losses and snagging shares before the reversal.  That’s why charts by themselves never get it done, they are a tool in the box but at the end of the day the fundamentals will win out.  This is why as much as it may be water cooler talk “Cool” to buy that EYES sexy IPO and chase the gains, in the long run that type of hot stock chasing will lose money.

With many quality names going sideways while the SP 500 index and NASDAQ index climb higher, it can be frustrating…

To wit, if we can quote Investors Business Daily from their Saturday paper here is what they said:

“For three weeks, the IBD 50 has been flat even as the major indexes have made new highs…Many have stalled, hanging by a thread to their latest buy points. With the market rising, these leaders should be making progress… Instead, there are just a handful of leaders making sizable gains… While crawl is frustrating investors, the indexes edging higher with little distribution means that market risk remains acceptable”

So if you are feeling like you are missing some of those bullet trains whizzing by on the CNBC and StockTwits trending ticker lists, resist the temptation to alter your game winning longer term trading plans and know that stocks make their biggest percentile moves in very short time frames, and usually right after you give up and sell.

Over at our Premium Service, here is a list of 11 stocks from which we are likely going to drill down and grab 3-4 for Intermediate Swing plays:

EA; FIVE; BIDU; FLT; CDW; LQ; HOLI; NEWM; JAZZ; ZAYO; CTLT

Come try us out.  $649 for 12 months of service includes pre-market updates daily, market forecast updates daily, 3-6 Short to Intermediate term (days to 4 weeks) swing trades every week, Intermediate to Long Term hold positions active portfolio.  Weekend reports, Real Time Text and Email alerts, Entry and exit points and more!  We also offer $99 a month, and $249 per quarter options to sign up.  One trade can pay for a few years!

WWW.STOCKREVERSALSPREMIUM.COM

WE HIT “KING” (KING)  THIS PAST WEEK FOR 13-14% GAINS INSIDE OF A 6 DAY HOLDING PERIOD.  $10,000 WOULD HAVE YIELDED ENOUGH PROFIT TO PAY FOR 2 YEARS OF SRP SUBSCRIPTION ALONE!  EVERY WEEK WE HAVE 3-4 NEW SWING TRADES AND MORE!

528 gains

StockReversalsPremium

Weekend Report- Market Trouble Ahead or Opportunity?

A tough week for the market indices as the SP 500 dropped 3.5% and we saw the largest weekly decline since 2012. We had warned our Premium subscribers early in the week that a drop to 2000 on the SP 500 would not surprise us from the prior week 2075 close near all time highs. We have a few proprietary topping indicators and both were giving us an early warning signalto reduce exposure to the markets.

One to watch is the NYSE index, which removes the noise of ETF vehicles. This is showing atriple top breakdown right now, with room on the downside still there. Old school market watchers follow the NYSE as best representing the broader markets.  We are stock pickers for sure and can work around some of these issues, but nonetheless its important to understand the direction of institutions and right now they are net sellers. We can also deploy 3x ETF’s to short the markets or sectors and raise cash. In addition sold out sectors like Gold stocks and Energy perhaps could give rise to some killer swing positions in early 2015.

sr nyse chart 1214

What now?:

Earlier in the week at our Stockreversalspremium.com service we alerted subscribers to take profits on a few stocks before the market tumble late in the week.  We felt reducing market exposure and portfolio risk was a prudent move. We sold some of our EXAS for 22% gains while holding 1/2 for example.

The SP 500 rallied 259 points from the October lows, which back then we were  calling a typical September-October swoon. At some point the buyers get exhausted and the sellers start to get a little more control. We are also in tax selling season, we have Oil crashing, and in addition to that Hedge Funds having a horrible year and booking more losses on their books.  All of this finally culminated in a washout sell off late in the week but there could be some more downside.

A typical correction is a Fibonacci relationship to the prior rally and the low-end is a 23.6% retracement of a 259 point rally.  That would initially point to a 61 point decline which we already surpassed.  More common is a 38% to 61% retracement of that entire 259 point move.  So the next pivot level is around 1980 and there is a gap at 1994 in the SP 500 as well that seems likely to fill.  So we would keep an eye on that 1980 area as a possible bottom pivot ahead of a Santa rally.  

What we are worried about is the action in January which could be quite volatile in the first few weeks. Energy stocks are obliterated but not yet a buy as some 70% of them have breakeven operations at $55 oil, and we are at $57.  Recall how long this Gold bear market has gone one (over 3 years), so no rush to get in just yet but worth watching for a January rally bounce.

Right now the market breadth on Friday was ugly with 347 new lows on the NYSE vs only 49 new highs. Biotech stocks look and feel like a blow off top is forming near term with stocks like AGIO, BLUE, KITE and others rushing to parabolic highs.  New IPO’s in the sector are going up fast on little data, it all smells to us like 1999 internet stocks. The thing is, we love Biotech at StockReversals and cover them all the time… so we hope we are wrong.

Now this doesn’t mean all is wrong in market land folks. In fact, we noticed one of our 2013 business disruptor picks ZLTQ (Dec 2013 at $18) just hit all time highs at $29 this past week on very strong earnings recently. Zeltiq makes a fat cooling technology we wrote about a year ago as “disrupting”. BlueBird Bio which we wrote about several times on Stocktwits at $23, $34, $44 is now at $93 per share just 7 months after we told people they were “killing cancer” at $23 a share.  Kite Pharmaceuticals we discussed on Stocktwits at $33 in October is now at $54.  So there are areas working no doubt, but they tend to be focused in just a few select sectors meaning market breadth is getting thin.

We also are watching GOLD closely and would love to see a close over $1241 for us to get confirmed bullish, and we are not quite yet seeing the stocks in the precious metals sector confirming a low, but getting close.

We do have some fresh ideas and a few recent ideas repeated that are possible near term entries for Premium members depending on market action, and also for further review.  We list them with brief notes below.

BITA- Bit Auto, the Chinese auto website based financing and car information service. Big drop in share price but may form a double bottom in the $62-$63 area

AKRX-  Akorn Pharmaceuticals- This one is holding up really well in the sell off and forming a 4 month base

EPAM-  A 3 weeks tight base, this is the 3rd time it has  been on our weekend list

CDW-  Computer information/re-seller forming a nice base

VRX-  Would be a possible entry on this pullback closer to 135, but we would sell it below 131

PTRY- Pantry- 6 week breakout

SSNC- 7 week ascending base, was on a weekend list recently

LDL-  Lydall, possible 7 month base that could breakout

ZUMZ-  Retailer nearing highs, close to 5 week breakout

CNC-  Healthcare centers, new highs and in a 7 week ascending breakout

ZLTQ-  A former Business Disruptor at $18 now $29, but nice 3 month breakout

QLYS-  Also on list recently, security provider for I.T. networks nearing 5 week breakout

So there are a few names for consideration and a few of which may make our Alert swing trade positions near term at the premium service…. market willing… and if the market is not giving us a green light we will sit tight for a bit longer.

Consider joining our Premium members and smashing the market. We save you hours and hours a week of time, we alert in real time with text and email. We tell you where to enter, exit, and the profit targets on every position .We update all positions and the market every single morning 1 hour before the market opens. We are available almost 24-7 for individual E-mail to our chief strategist with quick responses. Just $99 a month or $249 a quarter or $649 a year! CLICK LOGO FOR MORE DETAILS

StockReversalsPremium

Biotech Champions and more! Join Free Today

Amongst many other winners, we spot Biotech stocks early in their awareness stages before Investors catch on. AVNR, ISIS, KITE, BLUE.. all hot now, but we were early, see below

May 28th Email excerpt to StockReversals members:

Biotechs have recovered as we forecasted back in April. A few we like include CLDX, BLUE, NVS, and OREX…

BLUE was $23 then, now $93.  CLDX was $14 then now $18.50. See other samples below

isis stocktwits

avnr stocktwits

sr kite

Recent winners include ISIS from $33 to $58 in 6 months.  BLUE from $23 to $93 in 6 months (260%). KITE from $34 to $53 in 2.5 months AVNR up 66% in 2 months

CLDX from $13- $20 in 6 months and many more  EXAS $16.75 to $29 in 3 months

All of the above Biotech Ideas were E-mailed to our Members list

twtter

What do we like now?  CHRS (Bio Similars), CNAT (Liver), CNCE (Deuterated versions of drugs), ONCS (T-Cell) OREX (Diet Drug) to name a few… join us for Biotechs and alot more!

Join us Free today so you are on the list for our Stock of the Week Email, our Business Disruptor Reports, and our Weekend Editions which have 8-12 new ideas weekly.  All require passwords and are delivered via E-mail to our Free members

free sign up

129 twtis blue sr twits kite

Stock Of The Week- CMPR

Awesome, I tell everyone I know about your site.  Keep up the good work! Dan Anton Dec 5th 2014

 free sign up

CMPR- 69.50 12/4/14

Our stock of the week profile is Cimpress International, N.V.

Formerly known as Vistaprint and recently changing their name to Cimpress, which is based in the Netherlands.

The company has always maintained a focus on the small mom and pop businesses with custom printing of business cards, brochures, and other materials at a low cost with mass production.  They are now adding or shifting to the mid to higher end customer base with a larger potential deal value per customer, and longer term upside and margins.

As it stands, their return on equity is around 48% per Investors Business Daily.  They expect a 27% year over year annual profit increase as well.  In the most recent quarter the strategic shift led to a huge earnings beat and 87% year over year profit increase.  This was largely due to some larger orders with high margins to boot.

As they head into their fiscally strongest quarter the stock could be set up for an nice first quarter run in 2015. Earnings are due out in late January for the December quarter end.

We would not be surprised to see this over $77 in early 2015

cmpr sr